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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SusieQ1065 who wrote (37560)	4/22/2003 10:36:01 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Respond to of 57110

Where the earnings season has a positive tinge to it, as he points out, this is on revised (down) numbers. And it isn't like the market sold into the lower guidance. That makes this precarious right there. After earnings are done, there will be nothing to hold this market aloft. The earnings have been nothing short of amazing. Amazing of course if you remember that 57% of companies warned for this quarter. It appears the majority of companies "over warned" due to the impending war and now they are beating those lowered estimates. Of the 142 companies reporting so far this week 85 have beaten the estimates, 28 announced inline and only 29 missed estimates. In any normal market in any normal economic environment this would be an incredible showing. What it is showing us today is simply the result of being overly cautious heading into the war. It appears investors are ignoring the economics and the conditions that preceded this earnings cycle and are celebrating the earnings surprises by purchasing stocks. My only comment to the bolded text is "it wasn't terribly bullish when it happened in May 2002". At best, it puts us on alert that we should look out for more bullish behavior, but by itself, there is no evidence that closinng above the 200ema is bullish. Today was a benchmark day in the markets. The Nasdaq closed WELL ABOVE strong resistance at 1425. This is a strong statement and very positive in terms of generating continued bullish sentiment. The S&P closed above 905 and set a new high for April of 911 at the close. This was the first time since March of 2002 that the S&P closed over the 200 EMA. This is very bullish. Finally the Dow closed over the 200 EMA for the first time since May 2002. Granted it was only ONE POINT but it was a close. The positive futures tonight and the potential for overseas trading to add to our gains could push us even higher at the open. The key will be holding these impressive gains. The Dow has only one more major resistance area at 8520 before mounting an attack on 9000 again. The potential exist for a banner week!