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Biotech / Medical : Elan Corporation, plc (ELN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Icebrg who wrote (4304)	4/25/2003 6:47:42 AM
From: Icebrg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10345

NCB Stockbrokers - David Marshall. • Elan's share price has increased strongly over the past 2 days (+17%). The catalyst appears to have been a rumour regarding a takeover approach from Bristol Myers Squibb. • We continue to believe that takeover rumours are likely to be premature for two reasons. Firstly, Elan shares the key pipeline drug Antegren with Biogen in a 50:50 JV. Any approach from a third party would trigger a change of control clause which as we understand it would allow Biogen to purchase Elan's interest in Antegren. In our view, an acquisition without Antegren would not be attractive to major pharma. Whilst an approach by Biogen is not inconceivable, at the current time such a deal is likely to be too dilutive for Biogen to contemplate. Secondly, we believe management of any putative acquirer would be hesitant to acquire Elan while the SEC investigation on-going. A more likely option in our view given the risks and uncertainties is to await the outcome of the SEC investigation. • Elan is due to report Q1, 2003 results on the 30th April. We expect total sales of $193 m (-50% year-on-year) and EPS of -$0.39 (compared to $0.17 in the comparable quarter and -$0.54 in the preceding quarter). The main focus is likely to be on (i) the progress of the company’s restructuring plan in light of the difficulty in executing the primary care transaction with King Pharmaceuticals, (ii) the cashflow from operations, (iii) the cash and debt positions (iv) the expected timeline for Antegren newsflow and (v) an update on the revenue and cost outlook for the remainder of the year. • Clinical data from Antegren in the induction of remission in Crohn’s patients is expected over the summer - this is likely to be pivotal to the outlook for the remainder of 2003 as the potential for a dilutive share issue continues to increase.

To: Icebrg who wrote (4304)	5/21/2003 6:40:10 PM
From: Icebrg	Respond to of 10345

Elan May Short Interest Figures courtesy of LJD @ Yahoo! Settlement ------- Short ---- Avg Daily -- Days to -- Low -- High --- Insider Shares -- Date ----------Interest - Share Volume -Cover -- Price -- Price ------ Bought May. 15, 2003 –- 34,942,485 -– 2,613,033 –- 13.37 -- $2.80 -- $4.58 Apr. 10, 2003 –- 36,323,895 –- 3,548,695 –- 10.23 -- $2.25 -- $3.75 Mar. 13, 2003 –- 25,556,667 -– 2,351,642 –- 10.86 -- $2.75 -- $3.94 ----210,000 Feb. 13, 2003 -- 30,064,963 -- 4,975,824 --- 6.04 -- $3.31 -- $4.98 ---- 70,000 Jan. 15, 2003 -- 34,283,939 -- 3,541,000 --- 9.68 -- $2.13 -- $3.09 Dec. 13, 2002 -- 35,233,401 -- 4,493,863 --- 7.84 -- $2.00 -- $3.09 Nov. 15, 2002 -- 57,907,633 -- 3,619,163 -- 16.00 -- $1.18 -- $2.48 Oct. 15, 2002 -- 58,178,319 -- 4,082,390 -- 14.25 -- $1.03 -- $3.70 Sep. 13, 2002 -- 56,020,790 -- 4,968,560 -- 11.28 -- $1.65 -- $3.85 Aug. 15, 2002 -- 51,724,762 -- 5,568,483 --- 9.29 -- $1.51 -- $2.64 Jul. 15, 2002 -- 35,558,201 -- 9,876,435 --- 3.60 -- $1.54 -- $8.23 Jun. 14, 2002 -- 10,842,279 -- 2,996,681 --- 3.62 -- $6.60 -- $11.12 ---- 20,000 May. 15, 2002 --- 8,993,850 -- 2,766,818 --- 3.25 - $10.40 -- $12.69 ---- 20,000 Apr. 15, 2002 --- 6,958,047 -- 2,378,340 --- 2.93 - $12.50 -- $15.95 Mar. 15, 2002 --- 8,478,851 -- 4,117,426 --- 2.06 - $12.01 -- $15.89 ---- 90,000 Feb. 15, 2002 -- 11,591,758 - 13,230,182 --- 1.00 - $12.40 -- $44.97 –-- 246,000 Jan. 15, 2002 -- 12,141,768 -- 1,648,765 --- 7.36 - $40.25 -- $46.24 Dec. 14, 2001 -- 15,024,349 -- 2,379,265 --- 6.31 - $39.35 -- $45.31