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Technology Stocks : XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pcstel who wrote (541)	4/23/2003 1:27:29 PM
From: i-node	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3386

All I can say is watch for the Spot Secondary. Nonsense. Not at this level. It may happen after the stock moves on up, but they don't need the money right now so there is no reason on earth for them to do it when it is obvious the stock will be higher a year from now. While the stock seems fully valued right now for where we are with subs, anecdotal reports tend to indicate that sub estimates for the year may get clobbered in a huge way. If this happens, we'll easily see 15-20 by yearend. News overnight indicates Toyota may be making XM a factory option for Camry. If true, it is huge. Further, if Ford announces it is abandoning its exclusive arrangement with SIRI, this would be more huge news. Finally, Delphi is saying they're producing 1M Sky Fis by next year. I think many people just don't comprehend the cost structure for this company. Those who have studied it in some depth all seem to conclude the same thing: It is a cash cow in the making. The variable costs are low and the market potential is huge -- 10M, 20M, or many more subs. Assuming 300M shares outstanding and a PE of 20, a stock price of 60 could be expected at earnings of a billion dollars. To earn a billion, XM needs 18M-20M subs. We could easily see this within 5-7 years.