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To: SOROS who wrote (4192)	4/23/2003 4:51:41 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5423

methinks SARS = an Enron with an Argentina bust chaser /jw

To: SOROS who wrote (4192)	4/24/2003 10:01:24 AM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5423

World Bank warns of Sars effect The deadly Sars virus and the aftermath of the war in Iraq are likely to knock almost one-sixth off economic growth in Asia this year, the World Bank has warned. The World Trade Organisation voiced similar fears, saying that growth in trade would remain below par this year after having shrunk in 2001. And the OECD club of rich nations warned in its semi-annual economic outlook that the economic impact on the region could be "significant", especially in the tourism and retail sectors. Sars has killed more than 250 people and almost 5,000 cases have been reported. There were "great uncertainties" about its impact, the Bank said and cut its prediction for expansion in East Asia this year to 5% from 5.8%. "Growth could very well be significantly lower or possibly higher than this," the Bank said in a report issued on Thursday. But it was hoping that the short conflict in Iraq and the fall in oil prices might counteract the general sluggishness of the world economy, pushing growth back up to 5.7% in 2004. Second time around In a note of optimism, the Bank said that countries across the region were much better equipped to handle the Sars threat thanks to reforms made since the Asian economic crisis of 1997-8. Currencies across the region plunged during that period as confidence ebbed away and hedge funds ran up massive debts, threatening the health of the world economy. The effects ranged from a near-meltdown of South Korea's corporate infrastructure to a massive rise in poverty in Indonesia. Now, things are different, the Bank said. Despite China's position as the epicentre of the Sars outbreak its strong domestic demand should help to shield its neighbours from the worst of the damage, the Bank said. And it hoped that East Asian construction companies and service providers "could find lucrative markets in Iraq". Hammering But even so, the effects of Sars in the short term are alarming. Tourism in Hong Kong has collapsed, forcing companies such as airline Cathay Pacific and trading house Swire to cut their dividends and, in Cathay's case, shut down many of its intra-Asian routes. Stocks are also taking a hammering - the revelation of nine new cases in Taiwan in a single day forced its main stock market index down almost 5%. "The economic impact of this epidemic depends largely on how promptly and effectively the virus can be brought under control," the OECD said. The group said governments also faced a range of other economic concerns including, in the US and UK, dealing with house price booms and, in Europe, pushing through much-needed structural economic reforms. news.bbc.co.uk