To: Raymond Duray who wrote (20946 ) 4/24/2003 11:21:55 AM From: Ron Respond to of 93284 Republican Says Bush's High Poll Numbers Can't Last Reuters By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush's lofty poll numbers are certain to decline, his pollster warned supporters on Wednesday, as the Democratic voter base solidifies ahead of the 2004 presidential election campaign. Bush's approval ratings have risen into the low to mid-70 percent range after the successful conclusion of the war in Iraq, well short of the 90 percent ratings his father earned after the Gulf War in 1991 but still destined for a fall. "Expect the current high approval ratings to drop to a more realistic level," White House pollster Matthew Dowd said in a memo to Republican Party officials and activists. Dowd issued a similar warning last April, saying approval ratings that were then hovering in the mid-70s were destined to tumble in the run-up to the 2002 mid-term elections. Bush's numbers slowly dropped through the year, dipping into the high 50s before rising again before and during the Iraq war. Dowd said the memos were designed to be a "reality check," reminding Republicans that any dip in Bush's approval ratings is a natural phenomenon and not necessarily a precursor of doom in the 2004 campaign. "The current approval number should settle out beginning fairly soon and happen much faster this time, but you can expect a chorus of the 'the sky is falling' again," Dowd warned. He said former Presidents Reagan and Clinton were re-elected by wide margins in 1984 and 1996, respectively, while having approval ratings in the 50s. Reagan trailed Democratic opponent Walter Mondale through 1983, and was tied with him in polls in early 1984 but eventually trounced him. Dowd warned Republicans that Bush would likely fall behind some of his nine Democratic rivals in the build-up to the campaign. "Every incumbent president in the last 25 years has been behind the opposition in the latter part of his first term -- the sky is not falling," Dowd said in the memo. Dowd said Bush's rise in approval from the Iraq war was never destined to be as high as those enjoyed by his father in 1991 because support for the Iraq war was more divided on partisan lines. While Republicans were united in backing Bush on Iraq, a Pew Research Center poll last week found Democrats were evenly split. In the 1991 Gulf War, four of five Democrats backed Bush's father, former President George Bush, in his campaign to drive Iraq out of Kuwait. Bush has sustained high numbers -- he hit 90 percent approval after the Sept. 11 attacks -- despite uncertainty in the economy. Polls have shown continued economic concerns and worries about the direction of the country during much of the period. The latest Pew poll showed the economy replacing the war and terrorism as the biggest problem facing the nation. Democrats, eager to get the debate back on Bush's domestic policies, have been eager to turn their focus to the economy. Democratic presidential contender Richard Gephardt of Missouri ripped Bush's economic leadership on Wednesday as he proposed a sweeping and costly plan for universal health care coverage that he would pay for by repealing Bush's tax cut package. "He has no plan, no vision, no answer beyond simplistic knee-jerk tax cuts for the wealthiest among us," Gephardt said of Bush. Democrats have blamed Bush's 2001 tax cuts for reducing jobs and turning budget surpluses into record deficits, and Bush's second $726 billion tax cut package is tied up in Congress. Bush will travel on Thursday to Ohio, the home state of Republican Sen. George Voinovich, one of the moderate Republicans who has pushed in the Senate to limit Bush's tax cuts to $350 billion. The visit could step up pressure on Voinovich and other Republicans to reconsider. The House has voted to cap Bush's tax cuts at $550 billion, a figure Bush has accepted as his minimum amount. washingtonpost.com