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Technology Stocks : XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: i-node who wrote (561)	4/24/2003 1:30:56 AM
From: pcstel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3386

I stand by my earlier [corrected] statement -- the time to recapture these particular adds will be, on average, over a year OK! So you are standing by your earlier [corrected] statement.. LOL!! But then modify it!! Before you said.. and I quote.. "No, you're correct here -- I misspoke. The correct statement would have been that subscriptions being acquired TODAY will be paid for one year from today.* ""* Now it's OVER A YEAR!! Well, now that I point it out.. it seems quite obvious? Doesn't it?? But, what do I know.. After all... You're the expert. This would be a huge issue if we were not engaged in a period of remarkable subscriber growth. This would be a valid conclusion IF the time to recapture your CPGA was completed in an "acceptable" time frame.. Years and a COC of 14% is no considered "acceptable" It's all about the ratios of ARPU to CPGA... In all my years of examining subscriber models.. I have never seen one as poor as SDARS. Even MSS models looked better than these. "Over the next 2-3 years, we'll see CPGA shrink to the $50 range," Let me give you a little bit of my experience here.. You are stating hopeful speculation as FACT. In the reality of subscriber models.. Decreases in CPGA on the scale of even $50 dollars takes several quarters if not years to achieve. That's why it's a great short... You may "believe" that those are obtainable.. But, in my experience.. It's just not going to happen. Meanwhile, the number of active subs will continue to grow until we're looking at AT LEAST 10M, and more likely several times that. Should subs of 10M not materialize this company is less attractive. But I believe the likelihood of 10-20M subs over the coming several years is extremely high. Wow!! Fascinating!! Our average subscriber acquisition cost was $116.03 during 2002. The amount of these total costs will vary in future years, but is expected to increase in the next year as the number of subscribers and revenue increase. OK. That makes more sense than the way I was reading it.. Thanks! PCSTEL