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Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2003 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (384)	4/24/2003 7:34:28 AM
From: Londo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 666

Had I not spent a night out with some friends and my mind away from the marketplace, I would have been able to better key in some trades... I'm going to take a small gamble that the S&P 500 peaked yesterday. Maybe. My mind is very subject to change. But let's just say I'm feeling bearish. Bonds are being bought, and I don't really care if it's Greenspan or the institutions, but I must go long bonds. Bonds should have gotten slammed over the past two days, but they didn't. Which means that they're being support, and this suggests that the indexes are due to fall next. I must make a paired trade - long bonds, short S&P. I was really wrong yesterday with the TBonds and still made a slight profit, but this time, I intend to be more correct. Short S&P at: 915, 919, 923. Stop it at all at 927. Rough target price: Cover at 890-885 and re-evaluate. Long ZB at: 112 14/32, 6/32. Stop it all at 111 28/32. Rough target price: 113 16/32, 113 24/32. I expect the index/bond to normalize halfway from present to 'cash' value between now and 6:30am (this has been previous typical behaviour on the futures, I guess the traders get to work at this time to restore some sort of equilibrium when they wake up to see client buy orders), thus I expect about half these orders to get filled (let's hope not the stops) assuming this theory is fufilled. I also half-expect these orders not to be filled at all, and the markets not even getting close to my limits.