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Strategies & Market Trends : Raptor's Den II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (611)	4/24/2003 7:54:27 AM
From: stomper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3432

first you got to find a huge list of bulls relative to that of the bears I keep telling you, most are still in in one form or another, so they may as well be bulls. Look past your view of strategists and traders. I think if you look at my past posts, you'll see how incredibly accurate my macro calls have been with the proof to back them up! -dave

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (611)	4/24/2003 9:16:16 AM
From: Bid Buster	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3432

Historicaly most bears turn bullish to soon and get killed on the final whoosh down..Hence why there are very few winners in bear markets.

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (611)	4/24/2003 10:04:36 AM
From: SOROS	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3432

"and why do you say we are not even close to wringing out the excess of the bull" I know 13 points was a little too much for you to contemplate. How about only one? It directly relates to your question above. Please, for the edification of the entire thread, share with us your deep knowledge as to why this historical fact is so irrelevant. 12. Put this all in perspective. There have been three long Bull markets in the last 90 years. From 1913 to 1929 the market got to a PE of 20. It then collapsed, and did not reach a bottom until 1949 where the PE was 5.4 and there was a dividend yield of 7.5%. That's a 20-year decline after a 17-year Bull. Then, from 1949 until 1966, the market again reached a PE of 20, but the subsequent decline too it to an eventual bottom of a 6.8 PE and a dividend yield of 5.7% in 1982. That's a 16-year decline following a 17-year Bull. Now we have another 17-year BUll from 1982 until 2000. But there is a difference this time. The PE reached 40. So where are we today? How great of a value is the stock market after a 3 year decline? Based on the TRUTH -- taking options and pensions into account -- the PE is about 46!!! The Bulls love history when it points to some obscure "fact" that supports buying stocks. Let them calculate where stocks will be if the market returns to an "historical" valuation of a PE under 7 and a 7% dividend. Greenspasm's rate cuts have done little or nothing to help for the first time in history. SOROS Additional Note: This is because the problem is STRUCTURAL.

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (611)	4/24/2003 12:43:47 PM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 3432

Here ya go... AAII: 63% Bulls and 19% Bears

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (611)	4/24/2003 1:34:46 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3432

boomspeed.com From John M.