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To: orkrious who wrote (237413)	4/24/2003 1:32:41 PM
From: Jeff Jordan	Respond to of 436258

I hope a campaign of class warfare isn't desperately brewing in smokey rooms for '04. I'm already sick of hearing about what feel good historically greatest period of economic illusion Clinton era fashioned. Look at the chart....not sustained anything? Now....puppeteers don't want strings cut for more illusion? One must face failure not be conquered by it. I suppose one needs to learn magic to understand voodoo? But, I think I know a sheep by its cover? Don't I?

To: orkrious who wrote (237413)	4/24/2003 2:11:31 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

my ACF credit trash hedge seems to be working today...no portfolio should be without it <ng> Cheers

To: orkrious who wrote (237413)	4/24/2003 2:18:11 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 436258

From JPM: Capital One reported 1Q03 EPS of $1.35, $0.32 above our and consensus' estimate of $1.03. Relative to our estimate, significantly lower revenues & slightly higher operating exp. were more than offset by a reserve reduction, lower dollar charge-offs, & a lower than expected ramp in marketing spend. • While Capital One appears to be navigating the credit quality aspect of the "seam" better than expected, nearly every other metric used in judging earnings quality fell short of expectations (e.g. revenues, accounts, marketing). In fact, we estimate that COF would have missed 1Q03 EPS expectations by $0.04/share, excluding a reduction in reserves and slower than anticipated ramp in marketing spend. • COF's credit card valuation proposition (low rate/low line) may not be holding up as well in the current rate & competitive environment. Revenue growth fell shy of expectations for the second straight quarter (again lower interchange was cited) and management lowered its loan and account growth expectations, as superprime competition failed to abate to acceptable return levels. • Charge-off guidance was more optimistic, despite lower balance growth. Charge-offs could now end '03 in the "low" 6% range versus "low-to-mid" 6% guidance prior.

To: orkrious who wrote (237413)	4/24/2003 2:22:03 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 436258

From JPM: Major PC component supplier confirms PC inventory build This morning during its March quarter conference call, ICST, the largest supplier of clock chips to PCs, stated it was tempering its June quarter guidance for PC clock chips due to excess inventory in the PC channel for both components and finished goods that had built up in March. The company believes there is excess inventory in both the whitebox and OEM markets and stated whitebox has slowed since March. • ICST supplies clock chips or timing devices that are found on motherboards in PCs, and we believe the company has approximately 60-70% share of the PC clock chip market. The company stated they expect their PC clock chip business to decline approximately 6-7% during the June quarter (below normal) if PC demand does not pick up. • As we stated in our notes on Intel and AMD last week, we believe there has been a build up in PC inventories due to the weak PC sales and stronger-than-expected PC component sales such as microprocessors. ICST also experienced better-thanexpected sales from the PC channel during the March quarter. • ICST stated that it believes inventory was built due to fears over supply chain disruptions as a result of the Iraq war, which we postulated in our note. The company also stated it has not seen any impact from SARS, so any incremental SARS impact could be additionally negative. We would note AMD stated China was a big source of growth during its March quarter. • We believe other PC component companies could begin to report shortfalls and/or lower guidance during the March quarter due to inventory corrections or potential SARS impacts as China represents approximately 10% of PC demand. We believe there is downside to our AMD and Intel revenue and EPS estimates in addition to high valuation and reiterate our Underweight ratings.