Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: i-node who wrote (571)	4/25/2003 1:48:48 AM
From: pcstel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3386

No I guess I don't. As a matter of fact, I can't think of a highly subsidized subscriber model that the subsidies ever went away. Can you? It's a valid statement! Can you name a highly subsidized subscriber model that the subsidies went away? Can You?? So, What we have proven here is that you talk out of your, excuse my frankness, "gluteus maximus", so to speak. You claim I made a statement "As a FACT".. But when called to back up your claim.. "that I stated that the subsidies NEVER COME DOWN", but then turned around and provided a post that shows me saying.. "As a matter of fact, I can't think of a highly subsidized subscriber model that the subsidies ever went away. " "Never coming down", and "never going away" are two completely different concepts. So like you admitted.. What you claimed I said, is not what I really stated.. Now we find out it is simply your "perspective" or as I have called them before.. your "selective interpretations"? In the future... When you wish to quote me.. Please take a few moments and actually research what I actually said, not what you think I said. I might expect that behavior over on Yahoo.. But, not on SI... Thanks, it is appreciated. The problem with the OEM's is that they will be subsidizing radios in cars who's owners may never subscribe. The subsidies will kill this company. Of course, what we found out is that 70% of those OEM installations are being activated. That is my point.. XM pays a subsidy for every radio GM factory installed radio, in addition to incentive payments. 3 out of 10 subsidies are not recaptued. Imagine if 3 out of 10 people that walked into Best Buy and bought an XM receiver went home and put it on a shelf, never installed it, never activated it? Doesn't sound so good in those terms. The subsidy has been paid, the cost of capital continues.. Yet, XM receives ZERO ARPU. $10 is bad enough..But, Zero is worse. They are not providing CHURN metrics! This is probably one of the most important metrics that you need! They are, and it is under 1%. Maybe they are NOW.. However, when I made that statement some months ago.. They were not providing Churn, all I could find on Churn was this statement in the 10-K "Because we have been in commercial operations for a relatively short period of time, we cannot predict the amount of churn we will experience. We also cannot predict how successful we will be at retaining customers who purchase or lease vehicles that include a subscription to our service. Subscriber turnover or our inability to retain customers who purchase or lease new vehicles with our service could adversely affect our financial performance and results of operations. " Had you bought a ton of this stock when we first had these discussions, last November (like I did), you would have realized a 900% return on an annualized basis. Like I stated before.. High Risk Telecom Junk is not my style.. Some people live for it.. I'll pass. You made a good trade, and you should be happy.. I am happy for you... You took a "high risk" chance.. And it paid off.. However, If you had shorted these stocks when I did in early 2001.. You would have been equally happy. I covered my last short on XMSR at around $7.. Picking it up again at $9 and change seems like easy money.. I would like to thank Peter at Harris for finding an avail on the 5K. Regards, PCSTEL