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To: AllansAlias who wrote (72068)	4/24/2003 11:25:54 PM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 209892

AA, yes but you also I think have to be aware of what is going on in other parts of the globe. You can not say the same for the rest imho, and I doubt it proper to say there isn't some form of connect.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (72068)	4/24/2003 11:34:31 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I know you're keeping an eye on this channel. ttrader.com The chart is old, but the lines are still there. I was working through a scenario with a couple of my ursine friends today. We've still got the safety on the SELL button, but quite a lot of things are lining up for at least an intermediate short shot. That line provides channel resistance around SOX 375, which also happens to be horizontal resistance from a swing high from late last year. If you imagine a market that produced that rally, it would likely bring NDX very close to 1160 - sound familiar? There, you have the C=0.618*A as you've pointed out, as well as the horizontal resistance. There is also this line to consider: ttrader.com And, that would place SPX up around the ol' neckline and plenty of horizontal resistance. I'm not sure that we get there, but if we do, I think it would be a gift to the bears. If we don't get it, I'm in no hurry to step in front of this. Accumulation/distribution patterns continue to favor up, with heavy volume rallies and light volume pullbacks. Everything fundamental points DOWN - the fuel for up is nearly entirely spent and we're running on fumes - but this ridiculous rally must run its course. BC

To: AllansAlias who wrote (72068)	4/25/2003 12:30:53 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 209892

Triple top? What triple top? ggg Act like it's not there. Seriously, I make a case for that to Aj See his post and my reply investorshub.com M

To: AllansAlias who wrote (72068)	4/25/2003 12:33:33 AM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

i am not sure what you are saying?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (72068)	4/25/2003 12:51:47 AM
From: The Freep	Respond to of 209892

<<Do people actually consider this triple top in the Dow to be a shorting opportunity?! >> Allan -- I think that's a little too simple. As Mish's post linked, there were other things going on at the same time: Naz and Sox making double tops with Jan, the BKX against that 800, the SOX apparently completing a bearish Gartley, many folks had the S+P completing a wee E on a wedge (though I couldn't quite tell how it was counted) around 915-920, GE tested Shack's channel, volume was decreasing on the rise, things like Les's scans indicating a top of some kind soon (even if just a day or two of selling before more up), the VIX at silly low RSI levels AND suffering from 12 straigh lower closes at one point, and so on. I would agree that in and of itself, a triple top is not a great short. But if one wanted to start adding, on the idea that some day we will reverse and plunge to new lows, it seems like it wasn't a bad time (note: I am VERY mildly short and probably won't be by the EOD tomorrow. It was scalping stuff, some closed already). The thing is, while I respect the big C... and still give it odds of happening... my contrary brain said that it seemed most likely we wouldn't make it through all that the first time. You know, give bears hope, scare the bulls, then proceed. We'll see if it happens, cuz there was nothing today to scare the bulls. I also right now am fervently embracing your middle bite strategy for my bigger trades. There will be tons of room if we're going to new lows... and if we are going to break out, there might even be a middle to play there. Anything else seems dangerous to moi. the freep

To: AllansAlias who wrote (72068)	4/25/2003 3:06:24 AM
From: Shack	Respond to of 209892

That triple top will likely break up, of this I have little doubt. But it is widely watched, I wonder how much coil that thing has. Ina ny event it is still not quite shorting time IMO, at least for the broader indices.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (72068)	4/25/2003 5:49:58 AM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

In addition to "structural" challenges, bulls are facing a developing sentiment wall of worry, which they might be unable to climb. Implied volatility getting oversold, falling irregardless of the tape. Latest AAII bulls rising from 46 to 63% and bears falling from 32 to 19%... Cumulative TICKs at historical highs. It is still a Bear. Surprises might be more likely on the down side.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (72068)	4/25/2003 8:20:33 AM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

AA agree, many traders are not watching the internals..P&F in fact does just that..so while everyone was in disbelif, we were heavily long with trailing stops for large profits...

To: AllansAlias who wrote (72068)	4/28/2003 2:19:43 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 209892

Do people actually consider this triple top in the Dow to be a shorting opportunity?! I thought we'd come at this later this week, but hey, I was just wrong, as the NDX 'big C' wants no prisoners it would appear. Triple top gets taken out starting today. I expect we'll come close before the close, but do the real business later this week. For those learning Elliott, the move out of Friday's low on NDX is right out of the textbook. A 30min chart is a good one to see it. Textbook characteristics: 1-2(sharp)-3(strong)-4(flat)-5, with 2 & 4 comparable in time.