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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (17024)	4/25/2003 10:00:30 AM
From: dvdw©	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 19219

Time will tell Dan, your right about that. As one who believes in the primacy of Supply and demand, there seems to be a total absence of metrics that the trading community can use to actually measure performance. Truth is tracking individual stocks is the only way to discern whether or not a particular company is priced right by the market at any given time. As you well know Shorts are Votes about future conditions. The short either believes the company is a POS or they believe that the stock they are shorting will yield a gain on the basis of a negative market backdrop. Most of the 7,000 or so hedge funds are under three years old, I've never seen a money mangers comments that suggest that these managers understand Supply and demand....which leads me to the conclusion that most are simply going along as a herd with the hopeful expectation for further declines without regard to the metrics of the actual supply demand equations they take for granted. Confidence is very sexy, and trade oligarchs are fully participating in the decimation of consumer accounts, one account at a time. I watch 45 stocks manifesting Supply imbalances. These stocks all are heavily shorted despite favorable growth metrics as measured by generally accepted wall street methods. Free floats in these companies are telling me that the portion of the floats that are short are wrong about the companies in particular. While the market back drop remains dicey, bets made need to account for the potential liability of the actual Supply demand metrics or those holding those bets are at grave risk for lack of understanding of what Supply and Demad IS, and further to the extent that it works. I suspect that the Missing Information will emerge which will correct these imbalances causing a great misery for those who are Shorting the subversion, without DD necessary to predict a stocks future performance. By August Oil prices could well be under 16.00 per barrel, the transition via capital rotation will be near complete and those caught in a web of their own ignorance could well be on there way to wearing sack cloth in place of Armani. Its the old adage of the forest or the trees. Without metrics of accounting which include a complete survey of the landscape, its easy to mistake the true lay of the land. Rumsfelds war plan exposed the rhetoric of ignorance as the active force, which differentiates between the future as it IS becoming and the opinions lined up behind What the future COULD be. Me thinks there are a whole lot of COULD be players in this market holding real risk without information tools in place to effectively measure said risk. There is a whole universe of companies which are not hedgeable, this is where I predict true fortunes will emerge. Where there is only a bet Short or Long foolishly made because the trade themselves are participating in managing the cash box of the current trend. All action happens against the free float....