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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (96203)	4/25/2003 1:23:08 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 281500

<The US military remained in both Germany and Japan for decades> This is the example endlessly brought up. Thing is, it's a bad example. The conditions that existed in 1945 Germany and Japan, do not exist in Iraq 2003. 1. Since their 1870s revolution, Japan had been slavishly and voluntarily doing everything it could, to imitate Westerners. Germany has close cultural links to the U.S. In Iraq, they are dominated by a culture that demonizes Western culture. There is abundant evidence that we casually irritate them, whenever there is contact, without ever realizing what we are doing. 2. if you study the conditions that are prerequisites to democracy with freedom of expression, those conditions existed in France and Germany, and do not exist in Iraq today: universal literacy, civil institutions, secularism, a self-sufficient middle class, a strong developed private sector economy. 3. as Bilow has pointed out, the total defeat (accompanied with mass civilian deaths) of a nation makes them willing to accept conquest; we have not inflicted that on the Iraqi people.

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (96203)	4/25/2003 1:26:05 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 281500

<The costs of production of Canada's Alberta Tar Sands is down in the 7-11$/b range. Then why aren't they engaging in all out production ALREADY??!!> Excellent question. Several answers: 1. The technology has been slowly refined over decades, leading to steadily falling costs/barrel. In the 1970s, the cost was $36/barrel. It took until the mid-late 1990s, for the cost to get down to around $10. That cost decline continues; it is possible costs could be down to 5-6$/b by 2010. 2. Since oil prices have fluctuated wildly over time, anywhere from $10-40, the private sector was not willing to do a rapid ramp, until the costs got down to the low end of that historical range. 3. In the mid-late 1990s, there was a large increase in planned exploitation. But these are huge industrial projects, billions of dollars and 3-5 years, from planning to full production. The production planned then is just coming on line now. 4. There are other constraints to a rapid ramp: availability of water and natural gas. At the moment, the biggest constraint is the availability of skilled workers willing to work in Northern Alberta. All the skilled locals have been hired, and labor costs go up when they've got to draw labor from distant areas. But none of those constraints are un-solvable. Production: 138,000 b/d 1980 345,000 b/d 1990 645,000 b/d 2001 almost 1 million b/d 2003 1.9 million b/d 2010 (expected) energy.gov.ab.ca