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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (5296)7/8/2003 2:45:31 PM
From: Proud_Infidel  Respond to of 5482
 
Gartner quantifies back-end led 2003 spending revival

By Peter Clarke
Semiconductor Business News
(07/08/03 01:39 p.m. EST)

SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Market research company Gartner Inc. is forecasting 2003 to be a growth year in capital expenditure with equipment for packaging and assembly scoring a 26 percent rise over 2002 and wafer fabrication equipment scoring a more modest 9 percent growth.

The overall growth in spending on equipment in 2003 over 2002 is likely to be 11 percent Gartner said in its capital spending and equipment forecast update teleconference on Tuesday (July 8, 2003)

However such a spending revival would almost entirely have to occur in the second half of 2003 and therefore Gartner is suggesting clients guard against the possibility of a flat 2003 and a recovery delayed until the first half of 2004.

Gartner's semiconductor and packaging equipment predictions are being made on the basis of an 8 percent growth in the semiconductor chip market in 2003 compared with 2002, one of the more bearish predictions for 2003.

The San Jose-based market researcher sees the possibility of growth being as strong as 12 percent or as weak as 1 percent, which would be a lower growth than the 1.9 percent growth Gartner recorded for 2002.

Similarly for 2003 Gartner foresees capital spending growth being as strong as 15 percent or as weak as 1 percent. In 2002 capital spending collapsed 38 percent from its 2001 levels.

Wafer fab equipment spending in the 2003 calendar year is forecast to be in the range of 1 percent to 15 percent after a flattish first-half. But packaging and assembly equipment has already shown signs of leading the recovery and Gartner's worst case for that market in 2003 is 17 percent growth while the best case is 35 percent growth.