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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (32464)	4/26/2003 2:23:53 PM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Bathtubs riskier than SARS Saturday, April 26, 2003 By IAN GILLESPIE, Free Press Columnist LONDON -- I may not be the right guy to talk about risk. I ride a motorcycle, I've jumped out of an airplane more than 400 times and I frequently disagree with my wife -- clearly a wacko with no regard for my own safety. But if fear of SARS has got you gnashing your teeth by day and thrashing your sheets at night, I suggest you note these statistics gleaned from the 1999 book Living Dangerously by John F. Ross: - Each year at least 60 North Americans fatally electrocute themselves on home wiring and appliances. - Each year beds, mattresses and pillows injure more than 400,000 North Americans. - Each year 8,500 of us die and nearly two million of us hurt ourselves after slipping and falling in our home. - Each year nearly 170,000 North Americans are injured while showering; shaving hurts another 40,000. - Zippers, buttons and other articles of clothing hurt more than 140,000 North Americans each year. - Approximately half of the bills and coins in our wallets, pockets and purses carry infectious germs. Now, let's consider the latest SARS statistics: There are 265 probable and suspected cases in Ontario. And there have been 19 SARS-related deaths -- most of the victims elderly and afflicted with some underlying ailment that weakened their immune systems. The Canadian at the centre of this front-page fright-fest, Mount Sinai Hospital microbiologist Donald Low, has said this: "I don't think there is a crisis anymore. We're seeing an incredible decrease in the curve." And yet, the World Health Organization issued a travel advisory suggesting people postpone all but essential travel to Toronto. Business travel to Toronto has dropped 20 per cent, retail sales have reportedly declined by almost 30 per cent, and some downtown Toronto hotels are reporting an occupancy rate of 30 to 40 per cent, about half the expected springtime rate of 70 per cent. A group of Toronto teenagers were banned from a soccer tournament in Pennsylvania. British Airways told its pilots and flight crews to avoid Toronto hotels and sleep in Montreal instead. There were rumours that trucks and drivers carrying Toronto's garbage to Michigan would be inspected for SARS contamination. What's going on? Why is the fear of this disease outstripping its spread? Why are so many people so afraid? According to a UWO expert, it's called "dread risk." Leora Swartzman is an associate professor in the departments of psychology and medicine at UWO and specializes in the field of health psychology. And she says our obsession with the dangers of SARS isn't surprising, because we tend to magnify insignificant risks and ignore substantial ones. "We tend to think that something we hear about more often is more prevalent," says Swartzman. "But you don't tend to hear about all the cases of infectious diseases or bacteria-borne diseases that have been averted." Swartzman points out we hear about the four or five per cent of SARS victims who die, but not the 95 or 96 per cent who survive. And we read much about the thousands of people quarantined, but less about them once they're released. Swartzman cites the work of U.S. psychologist Paul Slovic, who has documented how certain factors boost our fears. First is "perceived controllability." We downplay, for instance, the dangers of driving down the 401 when we're at the wheel. But with SARS, we seem to exercise little control. Another factor is novelty. Something new and unfamiliar like SARS is far more frightening than something old and familiar, like run-of-the-mill pneumonia. "There have been some estimates," says Swartzman, "that flying 10,000 miles in a plane versus driving 10 miles on a bicycle are associated with the same risk of dying. Yet some people are more afraid of flying." Swartzman also says that culturally, we have in many ways become a society of control freaks who insist that others keep us safe. "On one hand we feel we should be able to master everything," she says. "And on the other hand we feel very vulnerable to really minuscule risks." "Actually, from a health standpoint . . . things are less risky for us than they've ever been." Swartzman says she's travelling to Toronto this weekend to catch a show. For safety's sake, let's hope she steers clear of bathtubs and zippers. canoe.ca