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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (32499)	4/26/2003 11:54:35 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay: Sleepless in Munich. 5:30AM, fed the cat, flushed the toilet, now stuck in the middle with ... the thread. Let's move to my financial seascape - I'll be able to refinance the big mortgage at cca 300 bps lower than 10 years ago so Im already getting nervous - should I lock or wait longer... What else (come out DJ...)? I stuck too long to gold, so Im solidly in red for the year. Stayed in Ag and puts all over the place. My points a) Germany is sitting solid on the sandbanks of the Erhard's social consense, that is in dire need of fresh paint b) European Union is moving on c) Euro is here, with Yen asking for dancing card d) US... next time >> where do the Shii’t Moslem Iraqis get off believing << The religious differences, when ignored or negated (forget suppressed) for a longer time, are explosive (or detonators) one needs to count with. Check Yugoslavia. btw, check where Shiites are located in Saudi Arabia. >>If I didn't know better, I would have said ... now we are really in trouble;<< we're in danger and in doubt, so when in danger or in doubt run in circles, scream and shout RegZ dj

To: TobagoJack who wrote (32499)	4/27/2003 12:39:57 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Murphy is a contender. Those USD140billion of capital flight have -perhaps- a chance of returning. Murphy can send Argentinean elections to the second round. Message 18846330 Murphy winning could be a very good prospect for LATAM. He could do a Lula and staterd being loved and paraded as an example of the IMF policies (IMF needs this badly). He can make the propscts brighter for LATAM to take a lot of this money that will be flying out the US in the next couple of years. Late surge keeps Argentines guessing over next president By Adam Thomson in Buenos Aires Adam Thomson Financial Times; Apr 26, 2003 A surprising last-minute surge by a centre-right independent candidate yesterday promised to make Argentina's presidential elections one of the closest in history. With just a day to go before polling stations opened across the country, an Ipsos-Mora y Araujo poll showed Ricardo López Murphy, a former economy minister and fiscal hawk, would take second place with 18.1 per cent of the vote. That result would guarantee Mr López Murphy one of two places in a second-round run-off, scheduled for May 18. Everyone has now dismissed the possibility of a candidate winning outright in tomorrow's vote. According to the poll, the other place in the run-off would go to Carlos Menem, the business-friendly former president. He leads with 20.1 per cent. Néstor Kirchner, a centre-left candidate and favourite of the Duhalde government, has dropped to third place - albeit by only 0.2 percentage points. In a direct reference to the proposals of Mr Menem and Mr López Murphy, Mr Kirchner warned voters on Thursday that tomorrow's election was a choice between "the concentration of economic power that brought famine and desperation and a model of production, employment and social inclusion". Mr López Murphy's popularity has snow-balled in the closing stages of the campaign. Last month, according to Ipsos-Mora y Araujo, the independent was placed last out of the five candidates thought to have a chance. His recent success owes much to the breakdown in the two-party system that has dominated Argentine politics, as people have become disillusioned with the broken promises of the country's traditional political class. Until recently Mr López Murphy was a member of the Radical party, together with the Peronists one of the two traditional political forces. But he has managed to distance himself from his political roots by focusing his discourse increasingly on the need for political reform.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (32499)	4/27/2003 1:22:14 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay - I think the world is header for a calmer financial summer. Things will get quieter, move slowly towards middle values for a while. Past year has seen big geopolitical events - Afghanistan, Bali atttack, Iraq, North Korea, SARS. All will be getting quieter (not resolved). IF SARS follows the common cold model, infections will drop in summer, climb in winter. The world has 6 months or so. Canada has SARS contained. Singapore making progress. Phillipines needs to keep out Canadians....no matter how cuddly they are. Looks like Hong Kong has almost turned the corner on SARS. (but not on panic) Mainland China has had a wake up call - Shanghai still an issue, but China is moving on this. US market appeared to bottom in October. This is not a new bull, but part of the sideways motion. US dollar value vs. Euro is reasonable. Threat of $40 oil has gone away. Most central banks are pumping money and liquidity in. Commodity prices stopped falling, and have been rising for a number of months. By the way, Warren Buffett has bought a BIG piece of PetroChina. You bought before he did. You should feel good about that.