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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (32531)	4/27/2003 4:46:50 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Looking over some East Asia weblogs, appears first wave of panic in HK and Singapore may be starting to end - China may take another week. Maybe useful to think of panic as Elliot waves... Maybe we need to wait for 3 rd wave ? I don't see Japan getting hit in war with Korea. New generation Patriot anti- missle might protect Tokyo. Koreans would be lucky to have 3-4 working missles. AS for North Korean aircraft delivery, Japan has AWACs aircraft, F-15 and F-16 (their own improved version), at least some ocean and distance, and pilots who know what's at stake and will act accordingly.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (32531)	4/28/2003 1:51:07 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay - Here's what I am investing in now that you may find useful. These don't depend on retail of long supply cahins around the world, and are selling neccesites that can be consumed at home. *********** First, Natural gas royalty trusts Canadian - AVN.to ERF NCN PGH PVX PWI and US - SJT HGT I know you have some, would recommend you consider AVN.to if you are lookin for a new name to add. News on natural gas just keeps getting better. Physical constraints drive up prices. Natural gas is benefiting from the preference to burn environmentally cleaner fuel, environmental policies which restrict drilling in the lower 48, a commodity price cycle, a credit cycle for the domestic oil and gas which discourages drilling, and the lack of LNG terminal capacity to import gas due to the potential terrorist threat. NaturalGas is moving to a permanent higher price level, which is seems to do about a very 8-10 years. ************** Second, beaten up Utility stocks. These companies were victims of Deregulation and Enron et al, but didn't realize it until it was too late. They were pushed near BK, and most have refinanced and are now comming back. Most prices now in single digits, except Duke. There is still some risk in individual names, some I would buy at least 4 names, preferable about equal dollar amounts of all seven. AES already re-fied CPN calpine higher risk CNP centerpoint lower risk, already re-fi DUK stock price > $10 RRI already re-fied MIR in re-fi process, banks are cutting slack WMB some risk, but selling assets The 4 heaviest positions I have are RRI, MIR, WMB, and CPN in that order. These are the riskier ones, but have higher potential return. These are some of the biggest positions in my portfolio, numbers 2,3,4 and 5 respectively. For a lower risk set, I would look at RRI, CNP, AES, and DUK. Note that RRI is on both lists. If I could buy only one, it would be MIR, because of the recent bank agreement. I expect each of the utility stocks to gain at least 50% between now and November. I would acutaly expect double or better. Most are moving now - look at the charts. These utility prices are sort of a one time opportunity, due the the massive incompetence and massive theft in the US electrical power industry. The other areas I would look to invest are Brazil and Argentina, both having real value, and recovering from some very bad times. I don't have names for these - could el matador or some one comment ? Best Regards, energyplay