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To: GST who wrote (156539)	4/27/2003 11:04:02 AM
From: jackhach	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Overcapcity is the biggest drag on the economy right now -- if I were to isolate a particular single factor. A close second is consumer debt levels. Those are not a good combo. Housing, which has provided the funds (home equity loans) for the extended consumer buying (especially bigger ticket items), is starting to shows signs of leveling off -- and in some higher-end regions are now actually dropping. Foreclosures are mysteriously high despite the low rates, and credit card delinquencies are higher then during the recession of 1982/83/84. The average time a house sits on the market has increased steadily over the last 6 months. Its the first indicator, the second would be sale of "older/existing homes", and then building permits. New homes are the latest sector that typically gets hit. So you can sell "new homes" while the rest of the housing market is weakening. Home ownership has peaked at/around 68% (as it was at the end of Clinton's term) -- and simple demographics won't allow for anymore then maybe 69/70%. -JH