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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Snowshoe who wrote (32602)	4/28/2003 8:51:06 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Another perspective on the whole GW (climate not Bush :)) issue. The Andronova et al. estimate of the 95% confidence interval for the global warming due to doubling CO2 is 1C to 9C i.e. there is a 95% probability the actual number is in that range. I think that the top end of the range is highly unlikely and my planned research project is aimed at maybe proving that. But what does a 9C temperature rise mean? That's just a typical daily temperature range, so no big deal? Well that takes the mean temperature on Earth from 15C to 24C. So instead of the South of France , Northern California, or Virginia being average climates, climates typical of the tropics (e.g. Northern Vietnam, Cuba, Cairns, Rio, northern Thailand) become average climates. Put another way, assuming relatively little temperature increase at the equator, you might see double the average temperature increase in temperate latitudes. For example London or Boston would go from a mean of 11C to 29C. Well probably not quite that far but that means the tropical rainforest climate would extend far to the north of London and Boston.... i.e. the Jurassic/Cretaceous returns. mOOm