Why the bottom isn't in: "Convertible's Hot Streak Ends As Boomers Get Stodgy, Safe
By JONATHAN WELSH
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Andy Subbiondo has spent a good part of his adult life driving with the top down -- cross-country in his Fiat Spyder, around New York City in his Triumph convertible and through New England in his '86 Mustang. So what's he shopping for this summer? A new hardtop. "I'm keeping a low profile," says the radio ad sales manager from Loudon, N.H.
Bad news for boomers: Now, even your convertible's having a midlife crisis. After gaining ground for more than a decade, the perennial car of the summer is seeing a surprising drop in sales -- and prestige. From Porsche's Boxster to Lexus's SC 430, most convertible sales are down 20% to 40% so far this year, with Ford suspending production of a once-hot model and many makers offering discounts. And while car makers say they're still hoping for a rebound, here's one telling omen: Even James Bond has switched to a hardtop.
The economy, of course, is behind some of this, with some buyers calling drop-tops too self-indulgent for the times. (Difference between BMW's budget hardtop and convertible: $7,000.) But convertibles may be on the front end of a longer slide: Young buyers are increasingly snubbing them, while baby boomers are going for cars that are safer, more conservative -- and just don't mess up their hair. "You're dealing with a very fashion-conscious end of the business," says Jeremy Anwyl, president of Edmunds.com, an online auto-shopping service.
For Steve Rhoades, the issue was safety ... and his wife. The 56-year-old figured a little black Honda would be the perfect way to treat himself when he retired from his engineering job. But that was before his wife kept asking him to put the top up on the highway. Fifteen hundred miles later, he's selling the car. "We wound up taking all the long trips in her Cadillac," he says.
Ford's Thunderbird
For its part, Honda says the car's safe, though not suitable for everyone. And Mr. Rhoades's wife, Mary Ellen, seconds that: "I guess I'm a wuss," she says, adding at least it was better than her husband's old motorcycle.
Of course, this isn't the first time convertibles have fallen from grace. Air conditioning killed open-air driving in the 1940s and '50s. The cars came back again in the 1960s (Alfa Romeos, Ford Mustangs), until the weak economy and fuel crisis of the 1970s put drivers under cover once more. The current boom goes as far back as 1989, with the introduction of the Mazda Miata. All in all, experts say, feel-good cars always suffer when consumers start feeling bad. "Convertible sales are like hemlines," says Art Spinella of CNW Marketing Research in Bandon, Ore. "They go up when the economy is booming and down when it's weak."
007 Switches Over
This time around, though, the soft-top slump may go deeper still. With so many other flashy new designs competing for the same pool of impulse buyers, convertibles hardly corner the market in cool anymore. Agent 007, for one, drove convertible BMWs back in the '90s, but switched to an enclosed Aston Martin in the latest film. Even television cops don't seem to want them: On "CSI Miami," they drive a hardtop Hummer, a far cry from the ubiquitous drop-tops of "Miami Vice."
In fact, perhaps the worst thing for car makers is that these things may be getting the reputation as a fogey car. The "average" convertible buyer turned 50 last year -- two years older than car buyers as a whole, according to Strategic Vision of San Diego. Younger buyers, meanwhile, are snubbing drop-tops for SUVs and even hatchbacks: Drivers 35 years old and younger make up just 20% of convertible buyers, according to J.D. Power, down from 29% in 2000. In all, the shifting tastes have translated into a 12% drop in new convertible registrations through March, says market researcher R.L. Polk, compared with an overall drop in car registrations of just 2.4%.
So how's the industry responding? By building more. By the end of this year, there'll be at least 30 different drop-top models -- the most in decades, and a 10% jump from the 2002 model year alone.
Lexus SC 430
Topless versions are on the way for Nissan's 350Z sports car, Chrysler's PT Cruiser and BMW's Mini Cooper, and Cadillac is coming out with a two-seat roadster (price: $75,000). Chevrolet is even going to market later this year with a retro-styled, convertible truck. "They're here but the boom is over," says Evan Ide, the curator of the Museum of Transportation in Brookline, Mass.
Rare Deals
For their part, makers say the drop will be short-lived, blaming the slump on everything from war to cold winter weather. And all those new models may jump-start the sector: Mercedes, for one, says it's not too concerned about its 33% drop in SLK sales over the first four months of the year, saying its customers are waiting the model's successor, due out next year. And Ford says the selling season is just getting going: "We're going to have to wait a few months," a spokesman says.
For now, the folks who want these cars are finding some good deals, with Volvo convertibles and high-end Jaguars both going for thousands less than sticker price. Remember those hard-to-get, retro-looking Thunderbird convertibles? Turns out manufacturer Ford still has 2002 models hanging around, and so it's making deals and suspending production for a while this month. Even Corvette convertibles are getting a sales pitch usually reserved for dowdier models, with maker General Motors offering 0% financing.
After all, makers say, some people will never give up on driving with the top popped. Kelly Medvin, for one, knows all of the reasons for getting rid of her bright yellow BMW M Roadster -- she had a child last year, and then lost her job as a commercial real-estate broker in January. "I could do without it," says Ms. Medvin, of Clifton, N.J. "But I don't want to."
Reminds me of 1976 when the "last Cadillac covertible" rolled off the line... |
