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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (32613)	4/28/2003 10:37:25 PM
From: Don Lloyd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Maurice, If the tide had been rising or other major climatic events happening, people would have adapted without economic damage. Other than the distortions caused by special pleadings to the government for special insurance programs and subsidies. Regards, Don

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (32613)	4/30/2003 8:28:27 PM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 74559

The high end estimates from the Andronova study aren't trivial as I pointed out. They reckoned there is a 2.5% probability that the temperature increase for just doubling CO2 is above 9C in equilibrium. I think that is too and high and am planning on checking that out. But say there was a 4C rise for doubling then there is an 8C rise for quadrupling. As I've pointed out these changes mean much bigger changes in temperate and polar regions. Still it would take a while for the Antarctic ice to melt even then. So people would have time to get used to the rising sea level. I'm pretty sure that climate change policy will get very serious indeed once we get up to 2C-3C changes. I don't think the Antarctic ice will ever get to melt.... I would be more concerned about tsunamis than climate change if I was thinking of living in some place like Auckland. Even without a climate policy the sea level rise in a century should be small.