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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jim Mullens who wrote (53896)4/29/2003 2:11:22 AM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 54805
 
Jim,

I Believe Marc Cabi's firm, CSFB, was also indicted

CSFB agreed to pay $200 million as their part of the settlement. That was the second-highest amount agreed to.

However, I tend to think that a lot of sell-side analyst research is getting a worse reputation than it deserves. A lot of the fundamental research is rock-solid. It's the stuff pertaining to stock valuation that is mostly circumspect.

Just like anything else, some of the research is good and some of it is lousy. As just one example, though I question Mary Meeker's ethics, I learned a lot from the stuff she wrote about the Internet years ago. It would have been very difficult not to learn from her.

Eric mentioned limited capital expenditures as a primary cause of delayed mass deployment of 3G3 handsets (whatever 3G3 means and I hope he doesn't explain it. :) You countered that by mentioning problems with WCDMA technology as a main cause. I tend to think you're both right because it's very difficult to separate the two. With more money thrown at the problems, there would be quicker, better solutions (not always, but often). Yet I'm sure all of us would agree that the longer a case can be made for continuing to live on the income stream provided by GSM and TDMA, companies are less willing to make investments in WCDMA until they feel they have absolutely no other reasonable choice. They've obviously had those reasonable alternatives, so far.

--Mike Buckley



To: Jim Mullens who wrote (53896)4/29/2003 10:20:41 AM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
3G Infra

<< It has been my understanding that much of the WCDMA infrastructure has been deployed and problems with the WCDMA technology is the main cause retarding commercial deployment of WCDMA and "royalty flow to Qualcomm". >>

Much of the 3GSM WCDMA infrastructure has NOT been deployed. As a matter of plain and simple fact only a miniscule amount of the infrastructure necessary to eventually support 3G buildouts has been deployed to date, or will be deployed this year. That is the reason that the infra king announced this morning that sales fell 35 percent over the year-earlier period and will finish this year with 50% of the staff they employed 30 months ago.

Perhaps the ramp will start next year, but that is hardly a given.

- Eric -



To: Jim Mullens who wrote (53896)4/29/2003 10:50:04 AM
From: Eric L  Respond to of 54805
 
3G Infra

In case you are interested, there is a rather good analysis of projected 3G infra buildouts here, by Brian Modoff's Deutsche Bank Securities team:

base-earth.com

It was written last summer so expect push out from what they forecast, because as noted by every gearmaker that has reported in the last month, what was hoped to happen this year is not happening.

- Eric -