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Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2003 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Londo who wrote (409)	4/29/2003 9:08:56 AM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 666

Trades for today. Sell the GBP vs USD at a good price (I missed the spikes yday), and given the improving picture I bet against the EU3Month anomaly at -10, -11 bp (which is not, but certain market participants bet for a EU rate cut after June). I don't think so and bet against it. It could be a highly rewarding spread trade, pricing in a 45% chance that a cut happens by then. I think I could even "hedge" by selling the same time spread in the US, creating what I have thought about in a previous post. As the discussions and uncertainty rises, I expect some short term volatility. because of the summer lull, there will be no action until late September. It is therefore not interesting what happens before. The next story for the S&P will be some 924 or so...then i will revisit the chart. We have end of month, so I do not underestimate the prop effect.