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Strategies & Market Trends : Charts & Scans -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (2840)	4/29/2003 8:43:46 AM
From: Ron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5125

Even as the indexes move up, volume is declining. A likely sign. However, more earnings surprises could send them higher I suppose. (News trumps TA in my book).

To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (2840)	4/29/2003 1:30:58 PM
From: Lazarus_Long	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5125

Volume: That's been bugging me. Notice that trading volume now is actually higher than it was during the bubble. stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[d19980429,20030429][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G I can think of two possible reasons. One is that the stock market is currently much more dominated by institutions than previously and they trade, trade, trade, bull market or bear, whereas individuals creep away to lick their wounds during bear markets. The other is that people, professional and otherwise, were turned into trading machines by the '90s bubble and are still at it. I keep looking for a significant drop in trading volume as a sign of a bottom, but it may be that no longer holds. But, greenspan knows printing money causes inflation. Stagflation? Yeah. Not impossible. If you believe these numbers (they are from the US giv't, which has an interest in the matter), we never entered a recession: economy.com You need to register for this, but it's free. This is the tabular GDP data. Tabular consumer installment credit: economy.com If you click on "chart" for "Total Consumer Credit - Seasonally Adjusted ", you get something that looks suspiciously like the NASDAQ in the '90s: economy.com Interest rates: This is interesting. stockcharts.com Total Bankruptcies in tabular form. The chart also looks like the NAZ. economy.com Personal income: economy.com Jan '90 to Jan '00 income ratio: 9103/4766 = 1.91 Jan '90 to Jan '00 debt ratio: 1428.27/781.46 = 1.83 1st Qtr GDP was up- -by 2% year-over-year. Not great, but better than negative. Not enough to justify a bull market, though. Of course, the market tries to look forward and thinks it sees better times ahead. ERTS shows 59.45 right now. Close enough. P/E of 25.