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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TobagoJack who wrote (32666)4/29/2003 10:45:28 PM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Another buying on the cheap: Wireless pioneer Craig McCaw,
is taking control of satellite phone provider Globalstar in a $55 million deal. The deal, approved in Bankruptcy Court on Friday and announced Monday, gives McCaw's ICO Global Communications Ltd. a 54 percent stake in Globalstar, which burned through $4 billion before filing for Chapter 11 protection last year. The remaining 46 percent will be held by creditors, including Loral Space & Communications Ltd. and Qualcomm Inc
Go to Article from The Los Angeles Times <http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-rup29.6apr29,1,2976570.story>



To: TobagoJack who wrote (32666)4/30/2003 1:20:15 AM
From: energyplay  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hi Jay - I had the same feelings on the energy trusts - this is TOO GOOD to Be TRUE, what's the catch ?

Catch is dividends are tied to commodity prices. When commodity prices for natural gas were very low early in 2002, SJT did not have any dividend for two months, then resumed with a small dividend. The Canadian trusts also had lower dividends.

One temptation is to look at the 15% or better payouts, and say "If I put XXX dollars in I can have YY dollars a year !"

The next temptation is "If I BORROW XXXXX dollars at 6 % and get 15 % on trusts then I'll net 9% on XXXXX dollars..."

So I could pay off 9% of the loan each year...
Have to be careful to sell if the value of the trust drops more than a few percent....
Or I could use the 9% to buy more trusts, and get 15% on that investment....

Getting to the original problem, I don't want to be very leveraged to commodity prices which move around sharply.
I'll take some leverage, but 10-20% fluctuations happen all the time, and I don't want that to bite too hard.

Three mispricings -
1) natural gas has been mispriced.
2) This asset class ahs been mispriced, because the assumption is lower oil prices from Iraq will drive down natural gas prices in lock step. But NG and oil are different.
3) Canadian stocks are often mispriced - there's a 5-15% discount vs. US stocks.



To: TobagoJack who wrote (32666)4/30/2003 1:33:43 AM
From: energyplay  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Mirant MIR - Has been a wild ride recently ...

siliconinvestor.com

Book Value is $13.00 / share

Sales $29.00 / share

THere's a convertiable with a strike price of $7.52.

IF the re-finance calls the convertible, I would expect some short to be brought in...

My expectattions for the next 2-3 weeks for utes -

More swings, ending higher -

Message 18897000