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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SemiBull who wrote (9629)	4/29/2003 10:42:45 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95656

Semiconductor Equipment . . . Dupont Photomask announced a $100 million of convertible subordinated notes due 2008 in a private placement. Terms of the offering are expected to include an option exercisable by the initial purchasers to purchase up to an additional $20 million of notes. Taiwan Semi reported earnings of $0.03 per share which was $0.01 better than the consensus of $0.02. Revenues rose 10.2% year/year to $1.13 billion versus the $1.10 billion consensus. TSMC is giving strong guidance for 2nd quarter with expected shipments increasing 20% and average selling prices projected to gain approximately 4%. In addition, revenue growth is projected to be 15-20% sequentially. Despite strong guidance, a Moors and Cabot analyst has cited concerns over IBM "beefing up" its Microelectronics group with more high-end customers like Nvidia and potentially Broadcom using IBM's high-end processes as a second source. Adjusted (less discreets) SIA unit growth – March was up 24% sequentially, 14% year-year. For reference, Jan and Feb were up 22% Note that growth is highly seasonal – expect sequential decline in April units. Models, which assume very modest (5%) Capex growth in 2003 suggest a 2004 rebound with orders up 30%. The model is predicated in 12% unit growth in 2003; 15% in 2004. We’re on course. Longer term investors should continue to look to buy franchise semi-caps (NVLS, KLAC, AMAT) especially on pull-back. Though the June Quarter could be choppy, still anticipate a modest uptick in 2nd half 2003 orders leading into a stronger recovery in 2004. Stocks move in anticipation of orders. Semiconductors . . . ATI Tech was cut to Neutral at UBS based on valuation. The stock is up about 56% in the past two months and is within 10% of firm's target price of $6.75. Altera 1st quarter revenue of $195 million grew 8.0% sequentially and exceeded estimates by $7 million. EPS of $0.08 came in $0.01 ahead of estimate. Altera guided to a 2nd quarter revenue range of $197 million - $203 million. As ALTR pushes toward more advanced production techniques and increases staff to penetrate new markets, opex has increased substantially. The ramp of new products continues - Stratix revenue doubled during the quarter and estimate it generated roughly $10 million. Cyclone is not yet a significant percentage of revenue, but ALTR shipped over 15K units to 500 customers in 1st quarter. Continue to believe that PLDs will experience growth in excess of nearly every other semiconductor segment as programmable devices grow dollar content per board and penetrate new end markets. The company’s long-term ROA is among the highest in our universe, and we expect this trend to continue. Xilinx and Lattice Semi have indicated similar results. The net impact is to reduce the profitability of the PLD industry. 2020insight.com