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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (83779)	4/30/2003 2:31:23 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Just my opinion, but if you're short, I think you all should be looking at covering and going long. Methinks we're looking at the beginnings of a major summer rally. My indicators suggest something close to the opposite. You've got plenty of company in your optimistic assessment - just listen to the commentators and guests on CNBC. While my contrarian indicators show an overbought Market, the Fear Factor's 3-5 wk effect suggests we could well see the final high in the first half of May - the aftereffect from the euphoria and feeling of invulnerability generated at the fall of Baghdad. Not sure if the coming decline will be deep, but the euphoria surrounding our supposed victory over what was cast as a terrorist State, and the positive spin being put on what are actually ho hum earnings leave little room for further gains after the Fear Factor effect runs its course.

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (83779)	4/30/2003 11:20:10 AM
From: SpecialK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

In a bull market, we saw the monthly crossovers in 96, 97, 98, above 0, they reversed again and the markets continued higher. In a bear market, we've had our first crossover, but below 0, I believe it will reverse down again, as the markets continue lower. It may reach 1600-1650 (blue line), but will turn lower. Note: there was no crossover to the downside from late98 to mid00. once it crossed to the downside, there was no crossover until last October. Just my opinion, but in the longer term, we still have a lot of excess in the market. In the short term, tech is strongest, so it could continue to outperform, though it seems priciest.