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Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (330)	4/29/2003 11:42:23 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 1070

CB, New Zealand finally made the grade. The woman in Hawkes Bay is confirmed as a Sars victim. There's a Kiwi guy in China with it, but he doesn't count as a New Zealand case. There are apparently a couple more which they wonder about. The medical guild here seems to be on the case pretty well. We have hordes of Hong Kong and Chinese people in Auckland, so I'll be surprised if we don't get a few cases. NZ is going into winter, so it's time to propagate such diseases. The northern hemisphere [China especially] is fortunately warming quickly which will give a few months respite to try to get the thing under control before going into next winter and possible mayhem. Mqurice PS: My claim to being the first Sars victim fizzled when I started feeling better on Monday. Standard old 7 day aching, headache and sniffles - but maybe that helps fight another infection if it arrives soon.

To: Ilaine who wrote (330)	4/29/2003 11:45:28 PM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1070

>>but China still isn't accurately reporting SARS victims.<< If you so, you have right for your own opinion. Personally, I think the confident interval for the current Chinese reporting should be around 95%. And hopefully, in another couple of weeks, if Guangdong can be cleared, then we will have a final death rate there. And I think won't be much higher than 4%. While the death rate in Beijing will be higher for sure, one major reason will be a lot of early patients in Beijing are visitors. Visitors tend NOT to go to doctors until they feel really bad. And in SARS, early treatment is Very Very important for ones' survival

To: Ilaine who wrote (330)	4/30/2003 1:05:55 PM
From: RealMuLan	Respond to of 1070

>>You need to look at the death rate of one cohort of people who were infected.<< the age cohorts of people who suffer from SARS differ from one country/region to another, and it has a close correlation with the proportion of the aging population. mainland China has a much higher proportion of younger people, and thus much younger SARS population compared to HK and Canada, and thus will definitely have lower SARS death rate than HK and Canada, and not to mention the role played by those "rubbish" herbal remedies.<g>