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To: Larry S. who wrote (47922)	4/30/2003 7:33:20 AM
From: Nemer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

Kentucky Derby.. Kafwain, was until yesterday afternoon, my pick. As to Empire, Frankel is covering his @ss in the event of a loss, the way I see it. I've made good money for a long time betting his horses, for he does and outstanding job. The first year he came to OakLawnPark in Hot Springs, he brought Luis Ortez (a journeyman rider, but competent) so ====== I bet every horse he ran to win and collected some nice payoffs. The folks in Arkansas did NOT know who he was, or how good he was.... back then. He prepares them well and enters them in the right place. That was longer ago than twenty years .. longer than I care to recall ....bzgggggg That said, he is a New Yorker. Whiner and moaner. Everything that happens it NOT his fault. Excuses. Bitcher. as I said, typical NewYorker.......... so, whilst I feel sure that Empire does have a slight bruise .... Frankel is gonna make sure the world knows it. Last year, do you recall the middle of the night horse move to one of the Triple Crown races .... Frankel moved the horse at around 3am in the morning and then blamed the loss on the late night move ... heh heh heh heh Now, I'll wait until the draw/position selection this afternoon at 5:00pm EDT on ESPN. here is a post from yesterday concerning a few good handicapping factors I've used for a long time on the Derby Message 18896312 >>>> Eliminate these ... act as if they aren't even entered in handicapping a) Post Time Favorite b) eliminate any which are NOT aa) stakes winner bb) past performance runners in at least one 1 1/8 mile race and cross off those which c) have fewer than 3 races this year d) have more than 4 races this year e) chunk out those which had a poor race at CD Choose from only the runners who finished A) == on the board in one or more of these races Arkansas Derby Blue Grass Stakes Florida Derby Santa Anita Derby Spiral Stakes (formerly the Jim Beam Stakes) Wood Memorial and B) == in the money last start Workouts and/or races at Churchill are very important .... bullets at any distance are very valuable good times for over 5 fl are needed it is good to have your pick show an affinity for the track by showing it in w/o.......

To: Larry S. who wrote (47922)	4/30/2003 6:43:01 PM
From: Nemer	Respond to of 53068

Kentucky Derby 2003 Message 18900313 Posts ... could be of some interest to some ORDER of pick ACTUAL POST picked 1. Offlee Wild Seven 2. Funny Cide Six 3. Outta Here Fifteen 4. Lone Star Sky Ten 5. Buddy Gil Eight 6. Brancusi Two 7. Empire Maker Twelve 8. Peace Rules Five 9. Indian Express Nine 10. Atswhatimtalknbout Four 11. Ten Cents a Shine Fourteen 12. Domestic Dispute Eleven 13. Eye of the Tiger Thirteen 14. Ten Most Wanted Sixteen 15. Sir Cherokee Three 16. Scrimshaw Seventeen 17. Supah Blitz One confirms my thoughts that the rail out to the four is a bad place the aux gate is nearly as dreaded Currin with Outta Here moving all the way out to Fifteen and Biancone with Brancussi picking the Two BOTH stand out as "strange picks" they are SO POOR that they lead MY list of ELIMINATED from consideration along with them .. I also chunk out these .... Empire Maker, Scrimshaw and Ten Most Wanted so, as if this makes ANY difference to you hardcore horse folks here on the thread ==== gone *(for win wager) numbers 2 - 12 - 15 - 16 - 17 well ... I'm now down to only a dozen ...... lol (notice I still have the One in there though) but those entries listed above are eliminated from MY wager list ... as if they weren't even running ..... back to work on the PPs from the Daily Racing Form