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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (563)	4/30/2003 2:58:51 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4912

you not only dispelled that guy's thesis i'm not sure who "that guy" is or what his thesis is--sorry, i haven't followed your and LLCF's debate back that far. i will look at it when i have time, but i'm not talking about that now, one way or another as i have no idea what it is. If I read you correctly you are you saying those dollars from the trade deficit didn't come back here to be put in our securities markets in any great way prior to 1999 or so? i haven't looked at the figures for a while so forget the particulars, but basically there was a tremendous rise in stock allocation from the mid 1990s, with the peak occurring in our peak bubble year. foreign capital import composition since then has moved steadily into Treasurys and agency paper and away from FDI and stocks (though they have not been net sellers as i recall). CI has had some excellent pieces on the history of foreign fund movements over the last couple decades. Throughout the 70s the Japanese were being shipped boatloads of dollars. What did they do with them? the short answer is that they did not turn them into yen. the long answer is more complicated, but is critical to understanding what is going on with the dollar today. i talked about this in some detail in earlier posts. here are a few #reply-18823255 #reply-18850896 #reply-18852243