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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jayhawk969 who wrote (8213)	4/30/2003 2:32:40 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

NBIX vs. DOVP I'm afraid I haven't done this calculation, although I should have. Probably the way to think about is is to figure out for say $100m in marginal Indiplon sales, what is the ratio of the income collected by NBIX to that collected by DOVP. (This ratio might change some depending on what initial sales level you assume - i.e., DOVP likely collects comparatively more for the first $100m in sales than it does for the last $100m in sales at a starting sales level of say $600m.) You then need to compare the NBIX:DOVP comparative earning ratio you find above to the ratio of the market caps of the two stocks. That tells you which one is more sensitive to Indiplon. Anyone like to have a stab at the calculation for us? Peter

To: jayhawk969 who wrote (8213)	4/30/2003 10:07:23 PM
From: Michael Young	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

DOVP is very interesting. Since the IPO fiasco it has just floundered on no volume. They have quite a bit of cash, and several products in late stage trials. Bicafidine for dental pain is in Phase III. Ocinaplon will be entering Phase III soon for anxiety. Both products are on a path for approval in 2006. They burned $12 million in 2002. That should increase somewhat in the next few years. I keep passing on the stock because it shows no "energy." But I have a fear that I will stay away, only to see it trading around $15 in a year. MIKE