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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (32771)	5/1/2003 2:49:51 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Urban Legends Created in Orwellian Doublethink World Re: Hill & Knowlton setting up or influencing blogs...yeah, I bet they are starting to do that Snopes.com is a prime example of a Hill & Knowlton operation. Discrediting all politically difficult "myths" while preserving George Bush's teflon coating. I've already tested Snopes. A complete lack of response to my requests to out George Bush in several true stories of his criminality and malevolence have met with stony and silent indifference. An entirely more refreshing and honest attitude is expressed here: gratisweb.com Be sure to check out the other pages. Oooh la la!

To: energyplay who wrote (32771)	5/1/2003 7:32:59 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

>>Bush to land on aircraft carrier -<< VP will be sedated away during the critical time, I assume.We dont want to risk a coronary or two burst, while he's watching ("Make my day, punk...."), do we?...

To: energyplay who wrote (32771)	5/1/2003 6:29:14 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello energyplay, I went through the 2002 Report of NCE Petrofund from cover to cover, twice, and am feeling ambitious enough to start thinking about creating a model that mimics the behavior of NCE NAV under influence of gas/oil/liquid prices, interest rate, exchange rate. I may be wrong, but feel that the business is comparatively straightforward, easy to understand, realistically model-able, and fun to follow closely while tracking int'l geo-political, economic and financial news. On cashflow table (page 34) of the report, which I read and reflected on for about 5 times, I got puzzled, and then, so far, mildly concerned: (a) NCE's bank loan is about the size of its distributions paid (yearly, except for 2001, and aggregated over three years); (b) NCE issuance of trust units are of same magnitude as its distributions paid; (c) the NCE buys new reserves about equalling to its new bank loans and unit distributions. So, basically, a big portion of the earnings of existing reseves goes to pay for distributions, and then new money is raised to buy new reserves, the earnings of which is split pro-rata between new and existing unit holders. I will go through the 2002 Report of Enerplus this weekend. Question: in your experience, does what I described above (a-c) more or less apply to all the other energy trusts that renew their reserves? Meaning, does any trust fund acquisition from operating and debt (to a limit) cashflow alone as a policy? Continuing on the subject of risk/opportunity: (a) exposure to commodity price swing of oil/gas/liquids is the reason we buy these trusts (up to 50% of production is hedged to stablize trust revenue, apparently); (b) interest rate will impact the relative valuation of these trusts (vs. their imputed payout rate) and impact their financials via interest cost. Interest rate goes up, relative valuation goes down, interest cost goes up, impacting distributable amounts; of course, interest rate may rise because risk premium in financial markets went up, or economy recovering, the latter may cause gas/oil price to rise in compensation; (c) Question: exchange rate fluctuation will impact operating cash flow (?) as the oil/gas is valued/quoted/denominated in USD (?), and operating costs/debt denominated in CAD (?). Do the commodity prices adjust in USD terms, going up as USD drops? All in all, a fascinating toy, and eagerly awaiting the rest of the 2002 Reports to arrive in the mail :0) Question to Maurice: what is the worth of a company that pays out nothing, and is sitting on nothing that goes up in value with passage of time, and is always in danger of becoming irrelevant;0? and if its price is already high, what then is its value? Chugs, Jay