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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (44459)	5/1/2003 5:29:06 PM
From: Jeff Jordan	Respond to of 52237

well, those other economies aren't and won't grow? China not enough buying power yet. The problem is later when consumer debt service begins to rise. Business have no more cost cutting controls now. Margins can't rise that way or other new fancy accounting techniques. The fraud card has been used.......etc etc. productivity gains????<g> Greenspan voodoo talk. .....when competition increases for debtors who can repay you will see the nasty inflation of dollars if the economy isn't really producing increased GNP. Smells like economic deflation?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (44459)	5/1/2003 5:50:20 PM
From: ken-l	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

haim, i respectfully disagree. the lower dollar helps in the long run; however, in short run, the j-curve effect plays a major role. since many foreign contracts are long in duration, it is nearly impossible for US manufacturer to immediately take advantage of the newly created competitiveness. the current account will actually worsen for a time period while the country continue buying the previously unfinished contracts for imports, but now at a higher price due to the devaluation. furthermore, the weaker dollar also causes the outflow of the debt and equity investments funds, in turn reducing the current capital account. wouldnt surprise me to see the official reserve being pumped higher soon. regards, ken