Homosexuality, abortion, Affirmative Action, Gun Control. These issues aren't as simple as we make them out to be. "Nuancing the Issues." ABC.com
A certain chunk of political discourse during the next 18 months will actually focus on the issues, what people care about, and why. News pollsters will risk calumny and worse to try to shed a little objective light on the answers. We'll be asked how many Americans support or oppose issues x, y, or z, just for example, abortion, gun control and homosexual rights, and how much they really care.
The unfortunate answer is that life is not nearly as simple as a single number. Asking if people support or oppose abortion, or gun control, or gay rights, really tells us very little. Opinion is much more complex and nuanced than that, and it's really in the nuance that political candidates either get it right, or get it wrong.
Take abortion. Most people say it should be legal, 57 percent. But legal in what circumstances? When we test them, we find a huge range, to save the life of the mother, 88 percent; but to end an unwanted pregnancy, just 42 percent (and the latter is why most abortions are done). The fact is that most people think abortion is a private matter, and should be generally available; but most also think it's deeply objectionable, and as such shouldn't be done casually or as a mere convenience.
Gun control, similar deal, most (also 57 percent, and down from where it's been) favor stricter gun control laws. But more, 72 percent, say the Second Amendment does guarantee the right of individuals to bear arms (as Attorney General John Ashcroft contends). And again, views on specific measures range from a big yes (e.g., banning assault weapons) to a sizable no (banning handguns). (Handgun licensing is popular, as is ballistic fingerprinting.)
Burning Issues?
We've also found that neither of these is a burning political issue for most Americans. People seem mainly to want the abortion issue left alone. On gun control, well, here's what we reported back in 2000: "Americans are broadly dubious that gun control would substantially reduce gun violence, or that creating new gun laws is a better idea than simply enforcing existing ones, doubts that combine to make the issue something of a political misfire."
Another example is affirmative action. Again, the answer isn't a simple, single number. Preferential programs that disadvantage white men are broadly unpopular (and not just with white men). On the other hand, assistance programs, ones that provide a leg-up without overt preferences, are broadly popular.
On homosexuality, in a Gallup poll last year 52 percent of Americans said homosexual relations should be legal, only a narrow majority. Looking at it another way, 57 percent in a Quinnipiac poll last month disagreed with the Supreme Court decision to allow states to make homosexual relations illegal. That suggests that at least some people just want the courts, and the states, to stay out of it.
A huge majority, 86 percent, say homosexuals should have equal rights in job opportunities. But rights in other areas, such as adoptions and civil unions, cause deep divisions. Americans by 47 percent to 42 percent in an ABCNEWS poll last year said same-sex couples should be allowed to adopt (albeit a split, it was the first time supporters outnumbered opponents). And the public by 51 percent to 46 percent in a Gallup poll last May opposed same-sex civil unions. In a Washington Post poll in 1998, 55 percent said homosexuality should be legal; but in the selfsame poll, 57 percent also called homosexuality "unacceptable."
So, does the public support abortion, gun control, homosexual rights, affirmative action, The answer is, it depends on what kind of abortion, gun control, homosexual rights or affirmative action you're talking about.
As the campaign progresses, there'll be much debate on these and other issues, and a world of spin on where the public stands on them. We'll all be well served by good, independent efforts to understand the range and depth of public opinion, and by guarding against the efforts of others to distort or oversimplify it.
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