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Biotech / Medical : MDCO: Medicines Company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike who wrote (75)	5/2/2003 9:21:04 AM
From: Mike	Respond to of 125

One last one. Re: Wholesaler inventories. by: retireonme Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 05/01/03 08:04 pm Msg: 1356 of 1356 Rxfarmer, First thanks for posting a question. Somehow we have to get a dialog going on this board so thanks for taking the time. Ok first you are correct about the inventory carryover. I don't think the wholesalers have much more than the $3.7MM in inventory that I discussed. If anyone else has a different idea please post it. But you would be correct if the hospitals last year only purchased say $10MM in sales but the company reported $14MM. The wholesaler would start with $4MM in additional inventory. If they started 2003 with that level they would now have $7.7MM onhand in the wholesalers warhouse. This situation would not be a total mess. As long as the company that is selling to the wholesalers has ever increasing sales. But you are correct it would catch up with them eventually. Second is I don't think we are the only ones looking at this situation. The analyst's that have access to the IMS data can see what hospitals are purchasing. This can weed out the bad apples that are stuffing the channel. I don't think MDCO is doing this in any way. I think they are "managing" sales when needed but not in an overly agressive way. The next item is relative to the reps making their plans. Fairenough is pretty close to being correct. The targets and plans are set internally by the company. Obviously the company knows what the analysts are predicting and plan accordingly. Now not sure if the dog is wagging the tail or tail is wagging the dog. The discussions with the company gives the analysts the idea of what the sales projections should be for the year. There is a very skewed sales throughout the US for Angiomax. Some areas of the country are selling the hell out of Angiomax and others are not selling shit. Not sure if this is longer adoption times for these "slow" markets or heads need to roll. We will see as this year plays out. But if MDCO we to reproduce the sales that the "top performing" region has we would all be rich now. So as far as many of the reps not making the company stated goals is a correct statement. Good investing, Retireonme