To: Sully- who wrote (18727 ) 5/2/2003 4:24:58 PM From: Jim Willie CB Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467 WAR OVER BUT DOLLAR’S BATTLE BEGINNING by Dr. Richard S. Appel April 28, 2003 A series of events appear to be unfolding that bring into question the continued tenure of the U.S. dollar as the world’s undisputed premiere currency. Last September Mahathir Mohamed, the Prime Minister of Malaysia, made an unprecedented announcement. He stated that he would like to use gold in the form of gold dinars for the settlement of international trade. Since then, additional nations have released statements concurring with that belief. To date, these have all emanated from Muslim dominated countries. Last week, as the U.S. war with Iraq began to wind down, another announcement concerning the dollar was proffered from yet another Muslim nation. Petramina, Indonesia’s state owned oil company, stated that they were considering replacing the U. S. dollar with the euro in payment for their oil exports. Heretofore, Iraq was the only major oil exporter that had demanded payment in euros rather than dollars for their oil. The U.S. dollar, after staging a modest rally prior to the onset of the Iraqi War, has been exhibiting weakness since it appeared inevitable that the U.S. was to be successful in dethroning Saddam Hussein, and "liberating" his country. On the surface this appears to be a surprising effect given the unending statements by various experts, that a quick resolution to the war would be beneficial to both our economy and to the dollar. As I have stated, I believe that the war against Iraq was destined to increase the animosity between the various Muslim nations and the United States. It is likely that this recent statement by Indonesia will shortly be joined by that of other states within the Muslim world. Before the inception of its Bear Market the U.S. stock market, for the major part of a decade, had attracted enormous sums of foreign capital to our nation. In order to acquire our shares, foreigners sold their currencies and bought dollars. This acted to lend strength to the dollar but, unfortunately, this condition is now being reversed. The recent uncovering of the myriad of schemes, fraud, and deceit that permeates our business and financial communities has already begun to take its toll. It has shaken the confidence in our markets not only of American investors, but also of foreign ones. This has caused the sale of a substantial amount of U.S. common stock by foreign entities. The combination of the Bear Market and foreign concerns about the integrity of our business and financial participants, has already acted to generate the exit of a substantial sum of money from our country. This in turn has placed significant downward pressure upon the U.S. dollar, as now dollars are being sold for the monies of other nations Many commentators believe that Muslims have begun to use the dollar as a weapon against the United States. They state that a concerted effort is underway to depose the dollar from its throne as the world’s foremost currency. They further speculate that this is being executed in an effort to first weaken, then destroy, their hated adversary. I am not so certain that this is the case. However, a reduction in the world’s incredible dependence upon the U.S. dollar is the logical result, given the various events that have been and are now occurring. Not only Muslims, but all other individuals and countries that are dependent upon the continued confidence in and strength of the dollar, must now question the dollar’s continued viability as a reserve asset.