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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Mullens who wrote (53949)	5/2/2003 11:32:17 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Jim, You feel the FUD of GSMA & Gang has been effective. If that's so, it should be fairly easy to arrive at conjecture about how Qualcomm's performance would have been without the competitive FUD. Where would it (the company, not the stock) be today? What are the competitors' advertising campaigns that have been based on falsehood? (In the U. S., it's illegal to falsely advertise. Apparently Germany has even more strict regulation, not allowing direct criticism of a competitor. I don't know about other countries.) You mentioned on the moderated Qualcomm thread that the CDMA companies "can't compete" with the GSM companies, referring to the relatively massive dollars available to the GSM companies for use in their FUD campaigns. Now you mention that you believe Qualcomm has resigned itself to being in a no-win situation. Unless I misunderstand you, you appear to believe that Qualcomm has no sustainable, competitive advantage due to its competitors' FUD campaigns. If that's so, why are you investing in Qualcomm on a long-term basis? And, thanks for taking the time to do further research and post the Netlingo Fear, Uncertainty and Disinformation information That wasn't research, silly. I was in the mood to waste some time. :) --Mike Buckley

To: Jim Mullens who wrote (53949)	5/3/2003 10:29:46 AM
From: Stock Farmer	1 Recommendation Respond to of 54805

Jim, this is surprising. Here we are, on a thread devoted to the Gorilla Game. In which book, amongst a few other pearls of wisdom, Moore describes the advantageous effects of having a market momentum 3-5x that of the nearest competitor. Due to network effects market leaders can afford to decreasing percentage of their profits on frictional efforts such as marketing. Thereby increasing profitability and thereby increasing the resources by which they can drive advantages into the product or return value to investors. Conversely, the nearest competitor is faced with ploughing ever increasing resources (e.g. marketing effort) into combating increasingly powerful network effects and staying the same distance behind the leader. And it is this fundamental economic characteristic that gives a major advantage to Moore's "Gorilla". Which characteristic extrapolates well from individual companies to groups of companies aligned on common technologies which compete across themselves. And in Qualcomm we see the whole thing being played out in real for us. But in this case it is the crushing dominance of GSM versus the current second place showing CDMA. Rather than look to nefarious schemes to explain why Qualcomm isn't the rising ascendant that your hopes and dreams and greed would desire, perhaps just look to the well understood market effects that underpin the Gorilla Game. Yet you point to FUD? I have difficulty spotting the "FUD" that is being aimed at CDMA that doesn't also apply to GSM. I think instead you are seeing a refutation of grandiose claims being made in the spirit of Greed, Hope and Misplaced Certainty and confusing cause for effect. Just because you believe in certain claims doesn't mean anyone who doesn't is spewing FUD. It means, perhaps, that they don't believe the same things you do. And a few folks saying "no, CDMA isn't likely to enjoy 100% penetration any time soon" may be the whispering voice of reason rather than a carefully orchestrated smear campaign. John