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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TheSlowLane who wrote (30720)	5/3/2003 4:42:32 PM
From: Frank Pembleton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Paul....excellent post, simply because I agree with it <vbg> IMHO, the only way to make money in this market is to be a contrarian-- and not a trend follower. T/A is old hat, we all see the same indicators and most folks move with them, not unlike a herd of cattle being led to slaughter. You gotta buy when there's blood in the streets and you gotta sell when you see Jammin' Jimmy Kramer (last night on CNBC) talking about "EXPLOSIVE" earnings. OTOH... Earlier today, I was listening to James Turk being interviewed on the radio....his ST view on the USD is another 10% drop, with gold challenging it's previous high of $390....his IT view is $900 PoG within a 1 year timeframe....LT he's got gold hitting a lofty $8000 per ounce??? My view... We can all agree that the gold sector (the futures market in general) has the most informed speculators on the face of the planet...we've seen gold move up with this broad markets signifying that is just another bear market rally in a never ending series of bear market rallies. The fact is markets rallied as the USD dropped to new lows? As I said all along, I suspect the Americans were letting the USD drop against the euro-- as payback for the Iraqi quagmire. Hence, the negative divergence between the dollar and the equities. My take here is that the Americans will now openly support the USD as the markets begin to fall to avoid a major crash. They simply have no choice! Not if they're going to reelect the President, a leader who's now being compared to Ronald Reagan...so lets take a quick look back at 1987: pbs.org Read the headline: "U.S. SAID TO ALLOW DECLINE OF DOLLAR AGAINST THE MARK." Back in October 1987 Treasury Secretary James Baker's statement during the weekend was the kiss of death for the markets on the following Monday as the Dow dropped 22%. Soooo... My ST outlook is for a stronger dollar followed by a softening (but steady) PoG-- I'm not going to back-up the proverbial truck with gold stocks simply because I believe we'll see a retrenchment in all equities. Hence, the continuation of the negative divergence between the dollar and equities and I repeat, all equities. Regards, Frank P.