ARCchart on MMS and Camera Phone TakeUp
There are 2 charts, one from EMC, one from Strategy Analytics, at the link below.
1. EMC: No. of MMO's with MMS
- (see chart for Region breakout)
2. Strategy Analytics: No. of Camera Phones Sold
- Asia Pacific 15.82m
- Western Europe 1.32m
- Eastern Europe 0.26m
- Americas 0.2m
- Others 0.22m
According to Strategy Analytics, 37 million camera phones will be sold this year.
>> The Camera Never Lies?
ARCchart
Blueprint
1 May 2003
arcchart.com
In the past, cellular operators have been heavily criticised for the way new technologies have been introduced to consumers, but they deserve some credit for how MMS, or picture messaging, deployment has been handled. From Telenor’s launch of the first MMS-enabled network in March 2002, by the end of the year, 100 operators around the world had installed the technology. Most major European operators have marketed picture messaging to the consumer aggressively, offering the service free for an initial period to stimulate usage. This has produced some positive results. In the past week, the Carphone Warehouse, T-Mobile and Vodefone have all announced very strong camera phone sales. The implication is that the MMS play is now in motion. But a healthy installed base of camera phones does not necessarily translate into high picture messaging usage. Sometimes the camera does lie.
The enormous success of SMS messaging has led wireless carriers to hope that the addition of a picture element – so called picture messaging - will encourage consumers to ramp-up their messaging activity, taking operators’ wireless data revenues to more robust levels. Forecasts for this segment of wireless revenue have been ambitious, with some predicting that in Europe alone MMS will be worth $31 billion.
While operators have come under heavy criticism in the past for the way the introduction of new technologies to consumers have been handled, mobile network operators (MNOs) deserve some credit for how they have managed the launch of MMS messaging. From when Telenor unleashed the first MMS-enabled network in March 2002, by the end of the year, 100 operators around the world had installed the technology. For the all-important Christmas sales period, a healthy range of colour screen, camera-enabled phones – seen as vital for the uptake of this new service - were available. In Europe, this was backed by aggressive picture messaging marketing campaigns. In addition, virtually all operators allowed subscribers to send unlimited messages free for an introductory period to further stimulate usage.
These marketing techniques have produced the desired effect of encouraging subscribers to upgrade their handsets to MMS-enabled devices. Last week, the Carphone Warehouse, Europe’s largest independent phone retailer, reported strong sales of camera phones across its stores. While at CeBIT, T-Mobile announced that it had sold 1 million camera phones through its operations in Europe and the US. Yesterday, Vodafone revealed it had reached the 1 million subscriber mark for its Vodafone Live! mobile content and picture messaging service. According to Strategy Analytics, 37 million camera phones will be sold this year.
While these announcements bode well for the technology, having installed networks and good MMS device penetration does not guarantee the service will actually be used. Many buyers of a camera phone will be doing so simply to upgrade their handset and not for the MMS features. Handset manufacturers have been so successful at bringing colour screen, camera phones to market that pricing by retailers has been very aggressive. For example, some retailers are already providing Nokia’s new 3650 videophone for free on a one-year contract. The same is true for Sony Ericsson’s P800 smartphone. With this kind of pricing in some European markets, it would be difficult to see why consumers would choose a non-MMS phone.
While there are good deals for handsets on contract, camera phones on pre-pay tariffs remain expensive. Since people under the age of 18 generally cannot enter into contract tariffs, MMS phones on pre-pay may be beyond the reach of this important demographic. The youth market has largely been credited with creating the momentum which took SMS into the mass market and will be relied upon to do the same for MMS. The problem is that the promising quantity of camera handsets sold so far may simply be in the hands of the wrong demographic.
Operators have yet to release any concrete usage data, but there are indications that picture messaging adoption is not at the levels which operators had hoped. Having experimented with a number of pricing models, ranging from around $1 per message to $30 for a monthly bundle of messages, the average unit price has been falling. In addition, operators have been extending their periods of free usage. In Sweden, both Telia Sonera and Vodafone recently made this decision, extending the date they would start charging for MMS from February to May. This does suggest that picture messaging has been weaker than expected.
This is not surprising. While operators are to be commended on their overall handling of their individual MMS deployment, one area where they have failed miserably is on the interoperability between networks. In most markets, users are still unable to send messages between competing networks and this is impeding subscribers’ willingness to play with the technology.
Once interoperability issues are resolved and picture phones invade the youth market MMS will have its day, and the technology will begin to cannibalise SMS usage. For the individual, MMS usage will largely be event driven (birthdays, valentines, holidays, births etc.) and the marketing opportunities for the technology are considerable. However, it is difficult to see how normal SMS will not remain the messaging format of choice. This is until full email capability comes to the mobile phone – at which point both SMS and MMS will become redundant. With 20 percent of handsets sold in 2005 forecast to be a smartphone, this may be sooner rather than later. <<
- Eric - |
