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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (53963)	5/8/2003 11:02:07 AM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Where in the technology adoption life cycle do you and others think BREW is? I tend to lean toward thinking that it's crossing the chasm but would be interested in others' thoughts. I was hoping that somebody else would answer this question so I could cheat off of the smart people....but FWIW here is my take on the situation. I should probably note that I have never been quite as comfortable as others with the varius GG terms. I had to go back and reread the chapter on TALC just to refresh my memory. I agree that BREW is probably crossing the chasm at this point. The three areas that I would identify as near-term bowling alleys (6-9 months) are MMS (or whatever photo transfer mechanism Verizon decides to use), gaming, and location based applications. Verizon is furthest along in terms of gaming and plans seem pretty firm on launching camera embedded handsets and location applications in the next couple of months. I expect both of these markets to take off fairly quickly. I see PCS a little further along than Verizon....particuarly when it comes to sending photos. The launch of the Sanyo 8100 at a $100 pricepoint should allow this service to enter the mainstream. PCS has stated that they believe that the 8100 will become their best selling handset ever. We will have to watch to see if usage is able to be maintained at the same level of the early-adopters (15 photos a month)....for once, we should see that data in fairly short period of time. As for gaming....both PCS and Verizon have a fairly large selection of games for on their respective wireless services. PCS announced yesterday that they had seen nearly 2 million games purchased and downloaded. Unfortunately, Verizon hasnt broken out their download statistics by category. However, I would expect to see a fairly large number of game downloads among the 8 million total downloads that have taken place. I'm curious what statistics you would like to see to say that BREW (or PCS Vision) has entered the bowling alley? It is easier for me to think in terms of various applications in the bowling alley...but am not sure what type of usage/customer numbers you would need to see before you would say that the overall technology (or the entire category of wireless data) was in the bowling alley. Slacker