I don't like our minimalist approach myself
It does seem a bit quick. Pollack advocated having a large troop presence for approximately 2 years and only then then phasing them out. Still, we don't exactly know how many replacements will be arriving and what the total troop count will be in the fall.
My guess is that this plan is somewhat ambitious wrt to numbers and timing and we won't be down to 30k US troops by the fall. As far as I know, only the 82nd is currently being pulled out, while something like 4,000 MP type troops are entering. Again, as far as I know the whole 4th ID is there so, for now, we've got quite a large number of troops on the ground.
Iraq is basically an ungovernable mess
Is Iraq a viable nation? That's the 64k question, isn't it? And guess what, NO ONE has the answer. My bet is that it is. Both Marr and Pollack seem to think it can be - if - the aftermath is handled correctly. Imo it's way too early to say that the Bush admin has or is botching it. If the 4th ID had been on the ground as planned the US may not have faced many of the initial criticisms about security - both in the North and in Baghdad. As it was, that lack of troops may have cost us something up front, how much will, imo, only be determined in a year or so.
Iraq is a big country, relying on reports out of Baghdad exclusively may be a mistake, especially from reporters who focus on the "Quagmire" angle. So far, we've seen "Quagmire - The Faulty War Plan, " "Quagmire - The Chaos," and are now segueing into "Quagmire - The Occupation." We now know the first stories about a faulty war plan were utterly false. I expect some of the of the stories about chaos will also turn out to have been "over-reported" as well. For instance, just days after Tom Friedman gloomily reported on the state of affairs in Um Qasar, we learned that locals had rapidly formed a town council that was governing rather effectively and that public utilies were quickly being restored. In fact, the water distribution problem had almost been solved. Here is another story that may belie some of the "Quagmire - The Occupation" stories we hear so much of these days out of Baghdad.
Iraqis Elect Council in First Vote of Post-Hussein Era
By REUTERS
Filed at 8:49 a.m. ET
nytimes.com
MOSUL, Iraq (Reuters) - Rival ethnic groups elected an interim council to govern Iraq's third largest city on Monday in the country's first vote since Saddam Hussein was ousted by U.S.-led forces last month.
Amid applause from the assembled delegates, the 24 council members were sworn in by Mosul's chief judge in front of U.S. Major General David Petraeus, who sat on a podium beneath an Iraqi flag. Petraeus is in charge of U.S. forces in northwest Iraq.
``We swear to preserve the unity of this land and protect its interests,'' the council members said in unison, standing in front of nine ballot boxes used by the delegations as soldiers looked on from the fringes of the U.S.-coordinated meeting.
The U.S. military maintained tight security for the 250 delegates who gathered at the Mosul Social Club.
The council later elected retired army general Ghanam al-Basso as mayor of the city and the surrounding province, preferring him to two other independent candidates.
``This is the first step on the road to democracy. I promise I will be a faithful soldier,'' al-Basso said to loud applause from delegates.
``You have taken an important step for Mosul and Iraq and we applaud your accomplishments,'' Petraeus told the mayor. ``I'm confident that together we can make a lasting difference to the people of your city and province.''
Earlier, as the delegations chose their representatives, several of them announced that they were withdrawing from the election in protest at the fact that delegates were divided along ethnic lines.
Petraeus said he believed the protesting delegates were radical Islamists who did not believe in representative government.
The council consists of seven Arabs, three Kurds, two Assyrian Christians, one Turkmen and one Shebak from inside the city, and six Arabs, one Yezidi and one Assyrian Christian from outside the city, along with two former generals.
Mosul is mainly Arab with a large Kurdish minority as well as Turkmens, Assyrians and other groups. The ethnic mix fueled fears of factional fighting after a wave of looting and violence last month, but military officials are now holding it up as a ``model city.''
``By being here today you are participating in the birth of the democratic process in Iraq,'' Petraeus told delegates at the opening ceremony. ``This is a historic occasion and an important step forward for Mosul and Iraq.''
One delegate who walked out complained that the council included corrupt officials who had served under Saddam and new leaders with little popular support.
``People are watching this closely, although there are different dynamics in each city. These people are recognized as leaders by their groups even if they are not elected and it is quite an achievement to have reached this stage in 12 days,'' said U.S. military spokesman Major Trey Cate.
RESTORING ORDER A PRIORITY
Al-Basso, a former general whose brother was killed by Saddam Hussein, ran for the post of mayor against medical doctor Hudaifa al-Dawachi and a former chief of police, Tariq Mutab. All three are Sunni Arabs from Mosul.
Among those observing the election was Mishaan al-Jiburi, a controversial figure who declared himself governor after U.S. and Kurdish forces entered the city. But a meeting he organized turned violent and he did not win official recognition.
U.S. military officials have said it could be up to two years before regular elections are held, based on experiences elsewhere in the world.
Despite public skepticism about the election process, there is evidence of order being restored in Mosul.
U.S. troops are patrolling with local police, banks have begun paying salaries, trains have started to run from Baghdad and there is regular, if scarce, fuel distribution.
``Now it seems life is getting back to normal. Saddam said it was difficult to control the people in this city, but if you control Mosul, you control Iraq,'' said retired teacher Jassem. |
