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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hdl who wrote (32999)	5/4/2003 7:48:51 AM
From: hdl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

when will the next boom be?

To: hdl who wrote (32999)	5/4/2003 8:35:14 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

hld, <<r we in the recovery phase?>> ... No, definitely not. We are either in ... achamchen.com ... or we are instead in ... http://www.dailyreckoning.com/ It reminded us how long, hard and frustrating the path to a bear market bottom can be. The numbers show the progress of the Japanese stock market from its high in 1989 to its low of last week. 12/25/1989 38,916 9/25/1990 20,984 -46.08% 4/19/1991 26,542 +26.49% 8/10/1992 14,820 -44.16% 8/30/1993 21,116 +42.48% 8/29/1994 20,658 -2.17% 6/12/1995 14,703 -28.83% 6/17/1996 22,531 +53.24% 12/22/1997 14,803 -34.30% 10/5/1998 12,879 -13.00% 7/12/1999 18,248 +41.69% 4/10/2000 20,434 +11.98% 3/12/2001 12,232 -40.14% 9/17/2001 9,554 -21.89% 5/20/2002 11,976 + 25.35% 4/21/2003 7,699 -35.71% You'll note that the Nikkei Dow rallied more than 25% on 5 separate occasions...while still continuing its death march. Despite the rallies, over a 14-year period Japanese stocks lost 80% of their value. However, we may be in recovery of commodities :0) Chugs, Jay

To: hdl who wrote (32999)	5/5/2003 12:13:07 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Why we are not on a recovery but still nosediving. lots of tough decisions and actions still necessary. No consolidation yet. Example: Telecoms ALA SI ERICY NEC NT LU. All of them still think that only cutting head count will keep them alive. No liquidations yet. Example Airlines. Only chapter eleven for a few months won't do. Total opening of skies. Ownership by foreigners. Demolition of government-sanctioned cartel IATA. No one is talking about that. POnly employees salaries deflation won't do. No junking yet of social-democracies'policies of welfare in Europe. Example: Germany going the way of Argentina by not cutting sate-distributivism. Banking sector ... 15 years to script to run through

To: hdl who wrote (32999)	5/7/2003 4:01:45 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Motorola calls for industry consolidation Message 18913095 <<Oh. Elmat is not alone!! GG>> Motorola calls for industry consolidation By Richard Waters in San Francisco Financial Times; May 05, 2003 The global semiconductor industry is in urgent need of mergers to deal with chronic over-capacity and the after-effects of the technology industry bust, according to a senior executive at Motorola, one of the biggest US chipmakers. Motorola would consider deals and would join in if a broader consolidation in the industry was under way, said Ray Burgess, director of strategy and marketing for the chip division. "We're open to anything that will improve shareholder value," he said. "Right now, the right partner and the right deal haven't come along." ST Microelectronics, the biggest European chipmaker, has eyed a merger with Motorola's semiconductor division, though so far no deal has emerged. "This is an industry that is not heading down the path of consolidation. It needs to," Mr Burgess said. "It has to happen, the question is who will be first." The global chip industry is suffering from an exaggerated cyclical downturn and a shift in technology that has left even big players such as Motorola struggling to keep up. Though always subject to vicious swings, the sector has suffered a bigger collapse and more protracted trough than usual since the tech bubble popped. Annual revenues for the chip companies fell from more than $200bn in 2000 to $140bn in 2001 and have recovered little since then. At the same time, a shift to newer technology requiring much higher investment has left most chip companies facing huge capital investment and research and development bills. "We've got twice the capacity we need, and yet there's no M&A," Mr Burgess said. "Our industry is a scale business - it's ripe for consolidation." Motorola has already acted more aggressively than most to cut capacity and reduce capital commitments to the chip business. The number of its chip plants around the world has fallen from 28 to 8 under its "asset-light" strategy. The cuts helped the company reduce operating losses in its chip division from $1bn in 2001 to less than $300m last year, though one-off charges and write-downs took the total reported loss to $1.5bn. Despite that, Motorola "still has output capacity for [revenues of] $6bn-$6.5bn," said Mr Burgess. Last year, chip revenues were $4.9bn. Most chip companies maintain a sizeable degree of unused capacity in preparation for the familiar cyclical upswings, though the lacklustre bounce from recent lows has raised questions about whether bigger cuts are needed.

To: hdl who wrote (32999)	5/10/2003 12:30:57 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Lucent's Russo sees further consolidation By Jonathan Moules in New York Published: May 9 2003 17:31 \| Last Updated: May 10 2003 0:17 <<Good. Very Good! Message 18913095 >> Pat Russo, chairman and CEO of Lucent Technologies, the lossmaking telecommunications equipment company, on Friday said consolidation was essential to restore the industry to growth. Speaking at Lucent's analyst day, Ms Russo said mergers could help all sections of the telecoms industry. "Everybody cannot be everything and do everything in an environment where the spending is constrained." She added that the survivors would need to focus on their "competencies and distinctive strengths". Her comments follow three miserable years for telecoms equipment suppliers worldwide in which spending by wireless and terrestrial phone companies has collapsed as the carriers battle weak demand and a hangover from the late nineties telecoms binge. Ms Russo's recognition of the need for mergers echoes longheld views on Wall Street, which has long said there is too little demand to justify the current number of players. However, consolidation has been frustrated partly due to the fact that Lucent and its peers, such as Canada's Nortel Networks and Alcatel of France, are considered national champions in their home markets. Michael Powell, chairman of the Federal Communications Commission, the US telecoms regulator, last October argued that companies such as Lucent and Nortel "must survive" if innovation in the industry was to continue. Ms Russo said on Friday see does not predict an "major mergers" and pointed to partnerships, such as that announced this week between Lucent and Juniper Networks, as an important part of the industry's recovery. Lucent, which has reported 12 consecutive quarters of losses, has cut its workforce by 64 per cent to 38,500 and reduced operating expenses by 74 per cent to $700m in the last two years in an effort to return to the black. Frank D'Amelio, Lucent's chief financial officer, on Friday reiterated the company's target of cutting another 3,500 jobs by the end of the year. "We believe the restructuring moves have significantly reduced or improved our overall cost structure," Mr D'Amelio said. "There's been a lot of redesign and it is helping us achieve our goals." Lucent shares, which fell below $1 last September, were down 2.7 per cent to $2.15 by the New York close. Message 18913095