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To: jrhana who wrote (10443)	5/4/2003 11:53:19 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 39344

<Jims why is everybody talking about a "firmer" dollar?> Slightly firmer against the E at the moment. Hard to call it much. forex-markets.com

To: jrhana who wrote (10443)	5/5/2003 12:05:08 AM
From: loantech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

jr, Maybe they were looking at this one: quotes.ino.com $$ has gotten hammered nothing moves in a straight line. Maybe ready for a rally. tom

To: jrhana who wrote (10443)	5/5/2003 9:57:11 AM
From: austrieconomist	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

US$ - hard to believe that there is any reason for US$ strength other than technical factors... markets inhale and exhale, in Russell terminology (who, in typical Russell fashion, frustrating to those who have not followed him long term, recommended on Saturday to his trading clientele not to go into index ETFs on Monday despite the Dow confirming the Transports on Friday, because the market appeared to him "overbought" and due to a pull back). Roach on the longer term prospects on the dollar, as edited by the Daily Reckoning: - "Could this be the beginning of America's long-awaited current-account adjustment?" wonders Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach. "The problem is the gap between nations with current-account deficits (mainly the U.S.) and surpluses (mainly Asia but also Europe) has never been larger. And for a saving-short U.S. economy, a dramatic deterioration of America's fiscal position points to an ever-wider current account deficit over the next few years - moving from a record 5.2% of GDP in late 2002 into the 6.5% to 7.0% range by late 2004...The only question in my mind is whether the dollar falls quickly or gradually." - The dollar made a series of new four-year lows against the euro last week. "The mighty U.S. dollar - against which almost all countries measure their own money - is on the ropes, staggering yet again after two years of waning strength," the Toronto Globe and Mail reports. "Last week, the greenback suffered a particularly nasty drubbing. The Canadian dollar - which went over 70 cents (U.S.) yesterday for the first time since April, 1998 - is at a five-year high against the U.S. dollar, as is the New Zealand dollar." - Maybe Roach is right. Maybe we have finally reached the epic "tipping point" for the U.S. dollar. - "All of which leads us to the nightmare scenario," remarks CNN Money. "It comes up every few years, and it goes like this: All those global portfolio managers, worried about the hits they're taking from the dollar, are going to start selling U.S. assets, which is going to: A) send U.S. stocks lower and B) further damage the dollar. Which is only going to make the global investors (and U.S. ones) more twitchy, and beget more selling. Which will beget more selling. Pretty soon you have a massive rush to exit U.S. assets, and a global financial catastrophe."