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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (695)	5/5/2003 2:33:33 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4912

Darfot, The scenario I envision would be somewhat similar to what the USA experienced during the Great Depression. Nothing like total civil disorder; more along the lines of few jobs, strong distrust of the fiat currencies; vastly reduced government assistance; stuff like that... In my "vision", things get sort of surreal, investments fail to the point where the common man no longer invests... I'm not looking for the "survivalist" outcome where it's every man for himself, guns at the ready... I think that any transitory periods between "gloom and doom" and eventual (very slow) recovery will be measured in days and weeks, not months and years. In the Great Depression, the situation was worsened by the dust bowl years in the country's midsection. In the absence of such a severe and prolonged climatic change, I think that the period of financial "panic" can and would be much less severe than what was previously experienced. Of course, all of this is merely an opinion. I have no crystal ball. The real bottom line is that I think that those folks that are prepared for some type of upheaval within the global financial structure will find themselves better off than those folks that make no preparations whatsoever. And even if such an event never materializes, at a bare minimum, the thought that I am prepared for such an emergency might just make me sleep a tad better at night, and I view it as simply insurance. Again, just my opinion. Other people's opinions are just as valid because none of us really knows for sure what events might come to pass in a global fiat currency malfunction. KJC

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (695)	5/5/2003 3:26:53 PM
From: dvdw©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4912

Darfot you said; thus I see gold partly as an insurance policy against a coming bear market in fiat currencies, and partly a speculative bet on an increasing (re)acceptance of bullion as a legitimate asset class. just marginal changes are sufficient to keep me bullish. in the severe scenario you envision, I think we will all have other worries besides how our portfolios are doing. Have you ever read Zachariah Sitchen? He's a guy who wrote the only logical explanation for Gold that I've ever read. In the past particularly in the 70's I though what you think now as stated in this post. Today I find that Sitchen makes the only logical argument for gold and Sitchens scenario is extraterrestrial. This isnt to say that gold will, wont, cant, make a portfolio money, but in comparison with for instance patents issued ahead of products, which will soon yield real therapies or useful innovation to process or objects, their asset values are far more compelling than any case for gold. The fiat currency argument is diminished in the main by demand expansion for the purpose of liquidity. A desire to hold value as a medium of exchange, that can meet the needs of the widest numbers of transactions. Gold metrics are too small to allow for this, and further the carrying costs of holding such a scarce physical commodity such as gold, actually lessens its value as a medium of exchange, especially in crisis.