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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (8261)	5/5/2003 9:34:47 PM
From: Miljenko Zuanic	Respond to of 52153

Ian, <<All the same, I expect some form of limited approval in July at the very least.>> Expanded access program saved Iressa, from approvable. Velcade, in addition to ~300 MM subjects, have +600 pts safety database. Plus ~400 pts from ongoing trials, some of them to be presented at ASCO. IF there is no significant safety concern, Velcade will be on market before 3Q-end.JIMHO Miljenko

To: Ian@SI who wrote (8261)	5/5/2003 10:44:07 PM
From: Biomaven	Respond to of 52153

1. Certain death without Iressa; or, 2. A 1 in 10 chance of survival with it? I think that about sums it up. For a real life example, Texasperry on the Yahoo IGEN thread has had what seems like a miraculous response to Iressa - his scans are now clear. (And he's now grumbling a little that he will now have to pay for the drug instead of getting it for free...) It's very hard to argue with even a few isolated miracle cures when the alternative is certain death. In a way, Iressa might be a sign of things to come in cancer treatment - drugs that only work for a small percentage of the target population, but when they do work they are extremely effective. Of course it would help a lot to know ahead of time whether or not the drug will work on a particular patient - but that too will come in time. I don't quite understand OSIP's weakness on the Iressa approval today. I assume it would have gone down as well if Iressa had been rejected or had gotten an approvable letter? My take is that the bar has been lowered some by today's decision, and the drugs are less likely to be direct competitors than some might think - I suspect they will turn out to be differentiated enough so that each will succeed or fail on its own merits. Peter