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State Dept. sees ‘credible’ threat of terrorist attacks in Mideast
Brian Knowlton/IHT IHT Wednesday, May 7, 2003
WASHINGTON The State Department said Tuesday that there was ‘‘credible information’’ that terrorist groups might be planning new attacks on American interests in the Middle East, although tensions had eased with the waning of the Iraq war.
It was a calibrated caution to Americans traveling or living abroad that while clear progress has been made in the fight against terrorism — and dramatically so against militants belonging to Al Qaeda — risks of terrorism have hardly vanished.
Counterterrorism specialists say they were surprised and heartened by the near-absence of major terror attacks in association with the Iraq war. There are substantial grounds to believe that Al Qaeda has been severely undercut since the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks in the United States, they say.
But they, like the U.S. and British governments, warn strongly against complaisance, and note that terror groups often work on long, patient — but unpredictable — schedules.
The State Department repeated strong language similar to that in a worldwide caution issued April 21.
It warned that terrorists might mount suicide operations, stage bombings or kidnappings, and could use biological or chemical agents, although conventional weapons were more likely. The broader picture, terrorism specialists say, is mixed.
‘‘It seems like a fair conclusion that Al Qaeda’s capabilities have been diminished by the string of very important arrests and disruptions,’’ said Daniel Benjamin, co-author of ‘‘The Age of Sacred Terror.’’ ‘‘That’s very clear.’’ ‘‘At the same time, every time we have attacked Al Qaeda, whether in ’98 or 2000 or after, we’ve been astonished by the depth of organization and surprised to find out how much bigger it was than we knew,’’ he said. ‘‘We shouldn’t have any illusions that we’ve solved the problem.’’
The State Department has gradually scaled back Iraq-related travel warnings for several countries in the Middle East and sent back diplomats who had been evacuated. Now, only Saudi Arabia is covered by a specific Iraq-related warning.
A warning issued May 1 reported increased security concerns, cited information that terrorists may be in the ‘‘final phases’’ of planning attacks on American interests, and warned against all but essential travel.
‘‘To issue a warning like that now means they must have some very, very specific, extremely credible information about this,’’ said a terror specialist, Evan Kohlmann of the Investigative Project, in Washington.
‘‘Unfortunately, the problem with Al Qaeda is that the progress we make against it does not necessarily decrease the chances of a terrorist attack.
‘‘Arrests of key figures, such as Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, definitely disrupt attacks.’’ Kohlmann added that terrorist planning had been significantly disrupted in several countries, including an alleged plot to fly an airplane into the U.S. Consulate in Karachi.
But such crackdowns can make other militants desperate, he said. They ‘‘start resorting to desperate attacks,’’ which can lead to desperate mistakes, making capture more likely; or, as lone wolf terrorists act without advice from above, their choices of targets and weapons can yield results he described as ‘‘horrific.’’
Mr. Kohlmann said that he had seen an increase in activity by extremist groups, including the posting on the Internet of at least three different jihad manuals, apparently recently written, with advice on such matters as making chemical weapons. ‘‘People are trying to get even with us,’’ he said. ‘‘It may just be a matter of time.’’
Crackdowns by the United States and its allies have made it harder for Qaeda members to travel, communicate, find haven and shift money or equipment. The ‘‘demonstration effect’’ of the wars in both Afghanistan and Iraq will very likely make other governments more reluctant to support terrorist groups.
Major planners like Mohammed, who was linked to the 2001 attacks on the Pentagon and World Trade Center, have been captured and reportedly provided useful information on others still afield.
President George W. Bush said last week from the deck of the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln that nearly half of Al Qaeda’s senior operatives had been captured or killed.
But terrorism specialists warn that the absence of recent attacks offers little assurance about the future. In the past, planning for major attacks sometimes took years.
The United States and its allies have handled their terror warnings somewhat differently.
In the United States, the color-coded terror alert system was lowered in mid-April to yellow, or ‘‘elevated risk,’’ but the White House then warned that Iraqi agents still might attempt terrorist attacks against U.S. targets.
France, which opposed the war, last week returned its own terrorism alert scale to the lowest level, ‘‘yellow,’’ which calls for ‘‘increased vigilance against real but still unclear risks.’’ Security there has been heightened since the 2001 attacks.
Australia, a strong U.S. ally in the Iraq war, has kept its security threat rating at medium since the 2001 attacks, despite the Bali bombings and the Iraq war.
But it considers that an attack on a ‘‘soft target,’’ like the nightclub attack in October in Bali, remains a threat, despite inroads against terror groups.
‘‘It’s harder for them now,’’ Bryce Hutchison, a government antiterror official, told a parliamentary committee last week. But extremist groups ‘‘still do retain a capability,’’ he said.
I think it worth noting that whatever benefit terrorist groups gained from the war, in terms of recruitment, would take a considerable amount of time to translate into operations. |
