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Strategies & Market Trends : Raptor's Den II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike da bear who wrote (920)	5/6/2003 8:13:40 AM
From: BirdDog	Respond to of 3432

Maybe it is going as he expected, but the fact is he did not communicate this at his site. First lets take a point of view that also contains humor. There is a well known trader out there who, when asked which way the market is going. The trader always advises: "The market is going up. Or the market is going down." The trader is always 100% correct. Then later when something goes up or down. The trader has too often said: "See! I told you it was going down/up!" Now Velo sticks his neck out with calls. EW is a pretty good system. I can't depend on it entirely. Or any other system. When I read Velo's site. I gather that he is bearish because of what he has in the larger cycles. I don't think even those who predict this as a cyclical bull are saying we're out of a secular bear. As I've read Velo, he is looking for one down wave to complete the cyclical bear. Then he is looking for a cyclical bull...just not yet. Lately, I've noticed smaller time frames where he has gone long. I took that as him expecting short term upside. This even though he is bearish on longer time frames. Please, anybody correct me if I am off base in what I've comprehended from Velo. BirdDog

To: Mike da bear who wrote (920)	5/6/2003 10:05:27 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 3432

I appreciate your comments as I was aware of Velo showing a channel (on the free site) that was trending up but then he thought it was going to turn over and go much lower since he was overall bearish. I read the comment that you objected to and I thought Velo meant the market was going up short term as he expected and that meant that he was currently long but was going to go short as soon as the market reached the top of his trading channel. It seems I too misinterpreted his comment "going as expected." If he was net short QQQ in the low 20's and the market is now has QQQ in the high 20's ($28.45 now) then I'd expect to hear him post on the free site about how stop losses were saving his capital or that he had a stop loss set at the top of this trading channel. Clearly being down as much as you say is "not going as expected." Of course, then I'd wonder how useful is a stop is that allows a 20% loss as I thought the idea of trading was to recognize a turn and set a tight stop in case you are wrong. Without a stop, this could turn out as painful to those short as Brinker's buy of QQQ in the $80's that he rode down to $20 since he didn't want admit an error and take a loss. I don't mind people being wrong and I expect everyone to be wrong about half the time. It is how people react to being wrong, protect capital if they are traders or set targets to buy more if they are an investor and too early to start catching a falling knife that matters to me. I look forward to Velo's comments on this trade here. regards Kirk out