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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Don Lloyd who wrote (18858)5/6/2003 12:57:45 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
too much thinking is stuck in today's parameters

I refer to 2005-2006-2007
by then, we will have much more talk about default of US Treasury debt
when annual federal deficits are in the $600-1200 billion neighborhood
the damage from the 2nd stage of the New Paradigm recession will be centered upon the Great Real Estate decline
the longer official forces intervene to forestall it, the longer lasting it will exact its terrible damage to the entire US economy, since we are far too dependent on consumerism, and far too linked with housing equity and spending patterns

I fully agree with you nowadays
gold convertibility is not even a back-page topic yet
but I am speaking of future dynamics

imagine we were talking here in summer 2000
if I were to tell you that we would see raging federal deficits a few years hence, but with lingering very low longterm rates, you would say HOOOEY

if I were to tell you that the euro would knock the dollar back 20%, you would laugh in my face

if I were to tell you that Iraqi's oilfields would be managed by Halliburton, you would permanently put me on IGNORE

so what future expectations are equally likely, and on their face, seemingly ludicrous ???

I say:
- questioning of US Treasury debt default by foreigners
- need to institute gold cover clause for currency during crisis
- rise of Asian gold convertible currencies (Dinar, Yuan)
- weakening of US military adventurism for financial reasons
- rise of Chinese Army and Navy, with them joining G7 as G8

and my favorite...
- price inflation experienced ONLY in the United States, among all industrialized nations, with relative price stability thru Europe and Asia, probably South America also


forget this year and next year, maybe following year also
let's think forward 3-5 years
I think the landscape financially will be unrecognizable

/ jim