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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (63850)	5/6/2003 4:43:21 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

I think software and networking are still growth areas but the growth is muted because it is being absorbed by some otherwise mature companies like Cisco and SAP. This was not what we had in the early 90s, THEN you had growth + new companies everywhere (cisco, oracle, etc)- so that was ideal from an investment perspective... we don't have that now. This period seems more like the early-mid 80s for technology where IBM had the lions share of business and to play the new growth areas you had to buy IBM stock, there were no pure plays then. The issue is the wildcard of depressed demand due to overcapacity. This is the bulls ace in the hole. Take a look at the dot com companies especially amzn and its performance in the past year. The dot coms collapsed first and recovered first, it was sort of a preview that could happen to some of the other industries, where all competition has been destroyed and only a few players left when a mkt comes back from the dead. I still think we have phase 2 of internet growth to look forward to, but I'm glad I am at least old enough to remember when this same sentiment happened after PCs went through a shakeout in the late 80s. If I hadn't seen that I would probably think networking was done forever too.