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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 2MAR$ who wrote (63851)	5/7/2003 10:51:54 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 77400

re: CSCO financial highlights: Thanks for those numbers. My take is, CSCO is going to be in a trading range, until telecom capex increases, and I don't see that happening soon. At 15 it's a short, and at 20 it's a strong short. The stock isn't going to zero, but we will probably see 10 again. All their other numbers can't get much prettier, until and unless the revenue number goes up, quarter after quarter, by a significant amount. And the problem here is that Cisco's customers (and their customers) have not yet dealt with the debt overhang of the Bubble. Corporate and consumer balance sheets are marginally better, but this is balanced by government (State and Federal) balance sheets that have gone from strongly positive to strongly negative over the last 4 years. For Cisco, and also for the market as a whole, I think we are past the point of ugly surprises. The bad news is out. But we are not to the point of consistent pleasant surprises. Cisco, like GM and GE, is a big company that is useful as an indicator of the broader health of the economy. There was a long discussion on this thread a while ago, about the valuation of CSCO, and the overall conclusion was that the stock is fairly valued somewhere in the $5-10 area. I haven't seen anything that changes that evaluation. So, I started shorting at 15, and I am prepared to short more, in increments, up to 20.